Monthly Archives: March 2016

The remaining tournament possibilities

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I ran all 3,145,728 remaining possible outcomes, and here’s a first pass on the percentage of remaining scenarios each team makes the NCAA tournament.

The same data is also available in a horizontal table that doesn’t fit as well in a blog post:
PWR possibilities

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
UND #1 62.6%
#2 26.0%
#3 10.0%
#4 1.4%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1 34.0% 63.0% 100.0%
#2 41.1% 29.5%  
#3 20.8% 7.4%  
#4 4.2% < 1%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Quinnipiac #1 15.3%
#2 39.6%
#3 29.4%
#4 15.5%
#5 0.2%
#6 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1 < 1% 4.5% 56.8%
#2 35.4% 45.7% 41.8%
#3 39.0% 38.0% 1.4%
#4 25.1% 11.7%  
#5 0.5% < 1%  
#6 < 1%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SCSU #1 18.7%
#2 14.2%
#3 32.6%
#4 23.8%
#5 8.4%
#6 2.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1   7.7% 61.9%
#2 < 1% 17.6% 27.4%
#3 29.5% 48.2% 10.7%
#4 39.7% 25.4%  
#5 23.9% 1.1%  
#6 6.9%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Providence #1 3.4%
#2 12.9%
#3 9.9%
#4 41.4%
#5 26.4%
#6 6.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1     13.6%
#2     51.4%
#3 1.1% 7.2% 30.1%
#4 58.3% 44.3% 4.9%
#5 32.1% 41.5%  
#6 8.5% 7.0%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #1 0.0%
#2 7.4%
#3 10.3%
#4 8.3%
#5 61.4%
#6 12.7%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1     0.1%
#2     29.4%
#3   < 1% 41.1%
#4   3.9% 29.3%
#5 82.3% 80.8% < 1%
#6 17.7% 15.3%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Denver #3 7.8%
#4 9.6%
#5 3.6%
#6 77.4%
#7 1.6%
#8 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     31.4%
#4   1.2% 36.3%
#5   3.4% 8.5%
#6 98.1% 93.1% 23.5%
#7 1.9% 2.3% 0.3%
#8 < 1%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Michigan #6 0.0%
#7 57.3%
#8 30.0%
#9 9.9%
#10 2.7%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#6     < 1%
#7 44.8% 43.4% 96.3%
#8 39.7% 37.1% 3.7%
#9 10.9% 17.9%  
#10 4.6% 1.6%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #7 26.6%
#8 18.8%
#9 38.9%
#10 15.6%
#11 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#7   27.6% 78.7%
#8   53.9% 21.3%
#9 73.1% 9.5%  
#10 26.8% 9.0%  
#11 0.2%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston University #6 1.6%
#7 14.4%
#8 49.2%
#9 34.7%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Yale #9 0.6%
#10 61.1%
#11 26.7%
#12 9.8%
#13 1.8%
Tournament invites: 98.8%		 n/a
Harvard #8 1.9%
#9 15.9%
#10 10.1%
#11 24.3%
#12 30.0%
#13 15.7%
#14 2.0%
Tournament invites: 86.2%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#8     7.8%
#9   1.6% 62.0%
#10   17.5% 23.0%
#11 5.5% 78.9% 7.2%
#12 59.0% 2.0%  
#13 31.5%    
#14 4.0%    
Tournament invites: 73.3% 98.2% 100.0%
Notre Dame #10 2.3%
#11 37.0%
#12 50.2%
#13 10.4%
Tournament invites: 93.1%		 n/a
UMD #10 8.1%
#11 11.2%
#12 5.3%
#13 29.0%
#14 24.9%
#15 8.1%
#16 7.9%
#17 5.0%
#18 0.4%
#19 0.0%
Tournament invites: 51.4%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#10     32.5%
#11     44.6%
#12     21.1%
#13 16.0% 55.8% 1.7%
#14 27.7% 37.7%  
#15 16.1% 6.5%  
#16 23.7%    
#17 15.1%    
#18 1.3%    
#19 < 1%    
Tournament invites: 17.0% 49.7% 100.0%
Northeastern #11 0.7%
#12 4.7%
#13 25.3%
#14 41.4%
#15 25.1%
#16 2.5%
#17 0.2%
Tournament invites: 40.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#11     3.0%
#12     18.8%
#13 7.2% 25.8% 61.3%
#14 45.4% 58.0% 16.9%
#15 42.1% 16.2%  
#16 4.9%    
#17 0.5%    
Tournament invites: 15.3% 29.7% 100.0%
MTech #13 17.2%
#14 25.0%
#15 29.3%
#16 19.2%
#17 8.1%
#18 1.1%
#19 0.0%
Tournament invites: 29.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13 0.4% 11.8% 56.2%
#14 6.7% 49.2% 37.6%
#15 36.3% 38.4% 6.3%
#16 38.1% 0.6%  
#17 16.3%    
#18 2.2%    
#19 < 1%    
Tournament invites: 1.2% 13.9% 100.0%
Cornell #13 0.1%
#14 2.6%
#15 20.6%
#16 49.9%
#17 24.2%
#18 2.6%
#19 0.0%
Tournament invites: 1.3%		 n/a
UMN #13 0.0%
#14 0.0%
#15 3.2%
#16 5.3%
#17 6.1%
#18 10.3%
#19 18.2%
#20 19.6%
#21 19.4%
#22 13.3%
#23 4.3%
#24 0.4%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     < 1%
#14     0.1%
#15     12.7%
#16     21.2%
#17   1.2% 23.3%
#18 2.4% 13.2% 23.1%
#19 10.2% 34.8% 17.3%
#20 22.4% 31.2% 2.2%
#21 31.4% 14.6% < 1%
#22 24.4% 4.5%  
#23 8.3% 0.5%  
#24 0.8% < 1%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Nebraska-Omaha #17 18.6%
#18 37.3%
#19 26.4%
#20 13.1%
#21 4.1%
#22 0.5%
#23 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Robert Morris #16 0.0%
#17 1.3%
#18 15.3%
#19 18.5%
#20 21.6%
#21 24.3%
#22 15.8%
#23 3.2%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#16     < 1%
#17   < 1% 5.2%
#18 1.4% 6.7% 51.8%
#19 6.9% 25.5% 34.7%
#20 21.8% 35.0% 7.7%
#21 36.5% 23.8% 0.6%
#22 27.6% 8.1%  
#23 5.8% 1.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
St. Lawrence #13 0.0%
#14 1.1%
#15 7.0%
#16 7.3%
#17 15.8%
#18 11.2%
#19 15.7%
#20 16.1%
#21 14.7%
#22 9.3%
#23 1.7%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     < 1%
#14     4.5%
#15     27.9%
#16     29.1%
#17   30.8% 32.5%
#18 3.2% 32.5% 5.9%
#19 19.6% 23.6%  
#20 26.9% 10.7%  
#21 28.3% 2.2%  
#22 18.6% 0.2%  
#23 3.5%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Dartmouth #13 0.4%
#14 2.8%
#15 6.7%
#16 7.6%
#17 13.2%
#18 10.3%
#19 6.8%
#20 11.3%
#21 17.2%
#22 17.0%
#23 6.8%
#24 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     1.6%
#14     11.0%
#15     26.9%
#16     30.3%
#17   25.7% 27.0%
#18 < 1% 37.7% 3.2%
#19 2.3% 22.7%  
#20 18.1% 9.1%  
#21 32.2% 4.2%  
#22 33.7% 0.6%  
#23 13.6%    
#24 < 1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Penn State #15 0.0%
#16 0.4%
#17 7.3%
#18 8.3%
#19 5.0%
#20 6.3%
#21 6.1%
#22 10.5%
#23 9.0%
#24 15.6%
#25 24.8%
#26 6.6%
#27 0.1%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#15       0.1%
#16       3.0%
#17     5.9% 52.5%
#18     25.5% 40.8%
#19   0.6% 35.3% 3.6%
#20   11.6% 27.5%  
#21 < 1% 21.6% 5.8%  
#22 0.1% 41.6% < 1%  
#23 5.8% 24.5%    
#24 31.1% < 1%    
#25 49.6%      
#26 13.2%      
#27 0.1%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Clarkson #21 2.6%
#22 19.2%
#23 44.2%
#24 29.7%
#25 4.1%
#26 0.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Mankato #17 0.0%
#18 2.9%
#19 7.4%
#20 7.9%
#21 5.3%
#22 2.1%
#23 5.2%
#24 12.5%
#25 16.9%
#26 6.7%
#27 23.9%
#28 9.2%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#17     < 1%
#18     11.6%
#19     29.6%
#20     31.7%
#21   1.2% 20.0%
#22   2.1% 6.4%
#23   20.0% 0.7%
#24 1.7% 46.4%  
#25 21.6% 24.2%  
#26 10.4% 6.0%  
#27 47.8% < 1%  
#28 18.5%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Rensselaer #22 1.5%
#23 13.6%
#24 35.0%
#25 31.1%
#26 16.3%
#27 2.6%
#28 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Miami #24 0.0%
#25 17.8%
#26 50.1%
#27 28.8%
#28 3.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Bowling Green #18 0.5%
#19 2.0%
#20 4.0%
#21 5.8%
#22 7.5%
#23 5.2%
#24 0.3%
#25 0.1%
#26 17.1%
#27 39.7%
#28 17.9%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     1.8%
#19     8.1%
#20     16.1%
#21     23.0%
#22     29.9%
#23     20.8%
#24   0.8% 0.2%
#25   0.4%  
#26 < 1% 68.4%  
#27 65.3% 28.1%  
#28 34.7% 2.4%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Air Force #19 0.0%
#20 0.0%
#21 0.5%
#22 3.2%
#23 6.9%
#24 6.5%
#25 5.2%
#26 3.1%
#27 5.0%
#28 63.8%
#29 5.8%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#19     < 1%
#20     < 1%
#21     2.2%
#22     12.7%
#23     27.5%
#24     26.0%
#25     20.9%
#26   1.8% 10.6%
#27   19.8% < 1%
#28 89.0% 77.3%  
#29 11.0% 1.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Union #29 75.7%
#30 21.4%
#31 2.8%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Ferris State #28 0.4%
#29 2.8%
#30 27.3%
#31 39.1%
#32 30.2%
#33 0.2%
#34 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#28     1.4%
#29   0.2% 11.0%
#30 1.0% 32.3% 75.1%
#31 50.0% 43.7% 12.5%
#32 48.5% 23.8%  
#33 0.5%    
#34 < 1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #28 5.4%
#29 15.7%
#30 16.0%
#31 13.4%
#32 19.4%
#33 28.3%
#34 1.9%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#28       43.4%
#29     68.8% 56.6%
#30 < 1% 50.0% 27.8% < 1%
#31 0.9% 50.0% 3.4%  
#32 38.8% < 1%    
#33 56.6%      
#34 3.7%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
RIT #35 1.0%
#36 23.1%
#37 22.0%
#38 28.4%
#39 20.1%
#40 5.0%
#41 0.4%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#35     4.0%
#36     92.5%
#37   84.3% 3.6%
#38 49.3% 15.0%  
#39 39.8% 0.8%  
#40 10.0%    
#41 0.8%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
UW #36 10.5%
#37 5.1%
#38 4.5%
#39 18.5%
#40 18.7%
#41 29.1%
#42 12.1%
#43 1.5%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#36     1.6% 82.1%
#37     22.6% 17.9%
#38     36.1%  
#39   59.8% 28.4%  
#40 21.2% 27.3% 10.6%  
#41 52.8% 10.5% 0.6%  
#42 23.1% 2.5%    
#43 2.9%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Army #37 0.4%
#38 9.0%
#39 12.1%
#40 20.9%
#41 39.4%
#42 16.2%
#43 2.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#37     1.4%
#38     35.9%
#39   0.4% 47.9%
#40 12.8% 43.3% 14.8%
#41 53.8% 49.8%  
#42 29.1% 6.4%  
#43 4.3%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan State #37 0.5%
#38 4.9%
#39 5.8%
#40 4.1%
#41 6.5%
#42 4.7%
#43 23.2%
#44 0.2%
#45 0.0%
#46 46.8%
#47 3.2%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#37       4.2%
#38       39.5%
#39       46.6%
#40     25.5% 7.2%
#41     49.8% 2.5%
#42   6.5% 24.6%  
#43   92.8%    
#44   0.7%    
#45 < 1%      
#46 93.6%      
#47 6.4%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

These teams should really try to win this weekend

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Need to win

These teams clearly need to win this weekend. A pair of losses could plummet any of them into the 20s and out of reach of an at-large bid.

#13 Minnesota-Duluth
#14 Michigan Tech
#15 Nebraska-Omaha
#16 Cornell
#17 Minnesota
#18 Penn St
#19 Northeastern
#20 Clarkson
#22 Rensselaer

On the flip side, a pair of wins could propel any of them onto the 11-13 bubble in preparation for next weekend. Even with a pair of wins, 13 is a bit of a longshot for Clarkson and Rensselaer, while Minnesota will struggle to hit 14.

Minnesota-Duluth is the team most likely to survive a sweep, as the Bulldogs face a huge range of possible outcomes if swept—from 14 to 22 being somewhat likely, though 16-20 is most likely. Where they fall in the range will be determined by how the other teams on the list above perform — the more that lose, the better for Minnesota-Duluth.

umd

Michigan Tech and Nebraska-Omaha seem most likely to fall to 15 or below if they don’t emerge from the weekend victorious, so would face an uphill battle to get an at-large bid with no additional games to play.

mtech

uno

Cornell could land in the 13-14 range with a single win this weekend (though 15 is more likely), which would leave them alive but with no control.

cornell

Minnesota and Penn State would each have an additional shot to climb in the Big Ten tournament, even if swept this weekend. But, each would also be in a pretty deep hold without a win. Even with a sweep, Minnesota won’t climb much, with 15-18 the most likely outcome. The Gophers would need an additional conference tournament win to gain confidence in an at-large bid. Penn State fares a bit better with either a single win or a pair of wins, being able to climb to the top of the bubble with the latter.

minnesota

pennstate

Though Northeastern could climb to the 12-13 range with a pair of wins, 14-15 is much more likely. Clarkson and Rensselaer face a broad range of possible outcomes with a sweep, being able to reach 13-14, but with 15-18 more likely, and even 19-21 realistic. All three need to win, plan to win next weekend, and get some help from others.

northeastern

clarkson

rpi

Mathematically possible?

These teams are long shots for at-large bids. Even with a sweep this weekend it would take a lot of luck to come out ranked #15. A subsequent win and a loss in the conference tournament shouldn’t move either much, so it would take some PWR luck and some cutline luck to get in at-large. Better just plan to win the conference tournament.

#21 Robert Morris
#23 Miami

rmu

miami

Win the conference tournament

These teams could give their fans some false hope by cracking the teens with a pair of wins this weekend. Unfortunately, it’s pretty unlikely to climb from there to above the cutline with a win and a loss.

#24 Minnesota St
#25 St. Lawrence
#27 Dartmouth

mankato

slu

dartmouth

Other teams not yet mentioned don’t even seem likely to be able to crack the teens this weekend. It would take an extremely unusual confluence of events for any of them to move into position for an at-large bid.

Six teams have an opportunity to dramatically increase NCAA at-large odds this weekend

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Likely in—#7 Yale, #8 Michigan, #9 Boston University, #10 Notre Dame

These teams are in good shape and likely to get an at-large bid if they win more than they lose in the coming two weekends.

If swept this weekend, their worst likely outcomes are falling to the 11-12 range, which would require keeping an eye out for potential additional downward movement and the cutlines (that is, how many of the at-large spots are taken away by autobids ranked lower than 16 in the PWR).

yale

michigan

bu

notredame

Of course, for Yale, Boston University, and Notre Dame, a pair of wins means another game. A loss in that game would probably result in giving back up some ground. But, that would still probably result in a safe position unless a lot of low ranked teams win their conference tournaments.

Note that Michigan’s position is slightly different because the Big Ten is still in regular season play. Even if swept by Penn State this weekend, the Wolverines would still have an additional game in the Big Ten tournament to either climb or fall. That worst possible outcome this weekend could drop Michigan as low as #12, from which another loss could push them out of position for an at-large bid.

Likely in if they win—#11 Harvard, #12 Mass.-Lowell

These teams would be in trouble if swept this weekend. Harvard’s likely fall could be to as low as 16, and Mass.-Lowell as low as 15. While it’s possible to climb a little bit while idle and have the cutline low enough to sneak into an at-large bid, it would be a bit of a longshot. I’ll also note that there are some extremely unlikely cases that could push these teams as low as 18 and 17 respectively if swept.

Sweeping, on the other hand, has the possibility of putting either in great shape — as high as 8 or 9 (though 9 to 11 more likely) with only 1 potential loss remaining.

harvard

uml

One more team you should expect to see in the NCAA tournament

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The first five—Quinnipiac, St Cloud St, Boston College, North Dakota, and Providence

On Feb. 23, I called the top 5 “starting to look like locks” for the NCAA tournament (in order of their ranking at the time)—#2 Quinnipiac, #3 St Cloud St, #5 Boston College, #1 North Dakota, and #4 Providence. While those 5 have shuffled a bit amongst themselves, they obviously remain the top 5, and are even more certain locks.

None of them are likely to drop out of the top 7 in this weekend’s conference tournament play. Because a worst case scenario for any of those teams would also mean no more games before NCAA selection, there would be limited opportunity for additional downward movement.

und

qu

scsu

providence

bc

Almost had it—Michigan

In that Feb. 23 article, I called (then #6) #8 Michigan too close and too many games remaining to call. The Wolverines have rewarded me for my caution, going 1-3, dropping two spots, and being at risk of hitting the bubble if they continue to lose.

michigan

The new “next one”—Denver

But what about the new #6 Denver (then #8)? They’ve been the hottest PWR team of 2016 with a 14-1-3 record since the New Year, including a 4-0 run since that article.

top10

The Pioneers are facing an elimination best-of-3 that is likely to result in no worse than a #8 PWR ranking, I’m comfortable saying you should expect to see Denver in the NCAA tournament.

Note, however, that Denver has not mathematically secured the bid. In very obscure scenarios, they could fall as low as 9 this weekend if swept (about a .1% of KRACH-weighted outcomes in which Denver goes 0-2). It’s conceivable, though incredibly unlikely, that the then idle Pioneers could slip enough further to fall below the cutline if almost all of the conference tournaments are won by teams outside the top 16. That scenario is extremely unlikely to still be in play after this weekend, but if it is, I’ll give full details of the likelihood and how it could happen.

denver

This weekend’s big PWR movers

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Sorry for the lateness and any errors, had to crank this one out in a hurry…

More upside than you might expect

Not this week. Usually a team or two in the mid-20s have the opportunities for jumps approaching 10 spots. Plenty of teams in that range have the chance to jump about 5 spots, maybe even 6 if all goes well, but anything approaching a 10 spot jump from a team of any consequence is very unlikely.

More downside than you might expect

The high teens is a tough place to be this time of year.

#14 Penn State, idle last weekend but on the list of potential big drops two weeks ago, is in familiar territory — win 2 to stay in place, or be prepared to fall. A 10 spot drop to #24 is possible.

pennstate

#15 Minnesota-Duluth, which jumped 10 spots (as predicted) with an impressive pair of wins last weekend, doesn’t have much upside potential but stands to give back its ground if it doesn’t keep up its winning streak. An 11 spot drop to #26 is possible.

minnduluth

#16 Minnesota, which was also on last week’s potential big drop list, finds itself there again. Two wins won’t do much for the Gophers, but losses could result in up to a 9 spot drop to #25.

minnesota

#17 Michigan Tech, #18 Miami, and #20 Cornell also face potentially significant drops of up to 7-8 positions if they lose 2. They each, however, face more normal upside potential with success.

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Weekend PWR watch — first conference tournament round

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Watching the top

#2 North Dakota used a pair of wins over #13 Nebraska-Omaha to climb past #3 St Cloud, which dropped a pair of games to desperate #15 Minnesota-Duluth. That leaves UND as the only team capable of taking over #1 from idle Quinnipiac this weekend.

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In last week’s outlook I predicted that the top 12 were generally safe, with no one likely to drop below 14. Though there was some minor shuffling within the group, only Nebraska-Omaha fell out of the top 12, landing at #13 following a pair of losses to North Dakota.

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Safe this weekend

This week’s top 12 look similarly safe for another week, with no one likely to come out of the weekend below #13. Note that quite a few of these teams, including #9 Notre Dame, #11 Harvard, and #12 Mass.-Lowell, are insulated against much movement by being idle this weekend. Teams likely safe in the top 13 include:

#1 Quinnipiac
#2 North Dakota
#3 St Cloud St
#4 Providence
#5 Boston College
#6 Michigan
#7 Denver
#8 Yale
#9 Notre Dame
#10 Boston University
#11 Harvard
#12 Mass.-Lowell

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Around the bubble

Most teams from #13 Nebraska-Omaha down to #21 Minnesota State could end up on either side of the bubble—at #14 or higher after this weekend, or below 14. The notable exceptions are #16 Minnesota will struggle to climb above #15 and idle #19 Robert Morris isn’t likely to climb beyond #17.

#13 Nebraska-Omaha
#14 Penn State
#15 Minnesota Duluth
#17 Michigan Tech
#18 Miami
#20 Cornell
#21 Minnesota St

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Need to climb

A handful of teams can’t quite make it into position for an at-large bid (which we’re currently calling #14 and better), but can come out of the weekend in the teens, preserving hope for an at-large bid with additional conference tournament success. Those include:
#16 Minnesota
#19 Robert Morris
#22 Northeastern
#23 Clarkson
#25 Rensselaer

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Need to win their conference tournaments

Idle #24 St Lawrence, and #26 Bowling Green and below are unlikely to come out of the weekend in the teens, and thus face a steep climb to gain an at-large bid.

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A couple data notes

The Eastern teams are already in conference tournaments, and thus playing best of three series this weekend. Their “win 2” curves include both the 2-0 and 2-1 scenarios. They are generally double-topped, and the 2-0 scenario is the better outcome.

There seems to be some confusion about whether the Feb. 20 Denver vs CC matchup was a neutral site game. As of now, USCHO, CHN, and the Denver site all list it as a home game for Denver; while collegehockeystats.net and the CC site list it is a neutral site game. This has a minor effect on RPI which does not affect any of the above outcomes; though these calculations assume it was a neutral site.