First, let’s review last weekend’s prognostications.

#1 St Cloud St didn’t need to sweep to hold onto the #1 spot because #2 Notre Dame stumbled with a pair of losses. Nonetheless, the Irish held onto #2 as predicted (#5 Denver could have overtaken them with a strong performance, but the Pioneers split on the weekend).

Those stumbles allowed #4 Mankato to climb into the top 4, as was noted could happen in that scenario.

None of the potential big movers came to fruition, as none pulled off the required sweeps.

Now, let’s look ahead to the coming weekend.

Potential 1 seeds

Because of stumbles by both St Cloud and Notre Dame last weekend, there are now 4 teams vying to emerge #1 from this weekend. In addition to the Huskies and Irish, #3 Cornell and #5 Denver stand a change of emerging from the weekend #1.

St Cloud is pretty much guaranteed to hold the #1 spot with a sweep of Denver. But, the same series gives Denver the best opportunity to take over the #1 spot if the Pioneers manage to pull off the sweep.

Above the bubble

Only the top 8 teams are pretty certain to emerge from the weekend in the top 12. Including those mentioned above, those teams are:

#1 St Cloud
#2 Notre Dame
#3 Cornell
#4 Minnesota State
#5 Denver
#6 Ohio State
#7 Clarkson
#8 Minnesota

It’s too early to call them all locks for the NCAA tournament (disaster in conference tournament play could easily push one of the bottom few onto the bubble), but they’ll be well positioned heading into the conference tournaments.

On the bubble

Almost all teams through #24 Wisconsin have a chance to emerge from the weekend in the top 14, thus on the bubble for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.

Those include:

#14 Nebraska-Omaha
#15 Western Michigan
#16 Northern Michigan
#17 Penn State
#18 Bowling Green
#20 Union
#21 Boston College
#22 Harvard
#23 Colorado College
#24 Wisconsin

#19 Boston University is the one exception. Hosting a pair of games against #47 Vermont just doesn’t give the Terriers much upside, with #16 looking like the best likely weekend outcome (and even that isn’t very likely).

On the outside, looking in

#25 Maine and below just aren’t very likely to climb onto the bubble, regardless of their performance this weekend. Those teams will be looking for success in their conference tournaments to gain access to the NCAA tournament.

Other interesting potential moves

#11 Michigan is the highest ranking team facing a precipitous cliff. Getting swept by #55 Arizona St could push the Wolverines as low as #22, with the #17-19 range most likely. A sweep isn’t particularly helpful, with a #10-11 ranking the most likely outcome of a sweep.

Perhaps more likely, #14 Nebraska-Omaha faces similar downside in a pair of games against #23 Colorado College. Getting swept could push the Mavericks as low as #24, though #19-21 are most likely. UNO, however, faces some upside potential from a sweep, with a climb to #11-12 most likely.

How it works

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

• PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• Forecasted PWR by team wins (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Will there be a new #1?

#1 St Cloud State is almost, but not quite, guaranteed to hold onto #1 with a sweep (the Huskies stay #1 in about 98% of scenarios in which they sweep), but with a single loss would become vulnerable to #2 Notre Dame overtaking them if the Irish can pull off a sweep. Neither has an easy matchup, with St Cloud State facing #12 Western Michigan and Notre Dame facing #15 Michigan.

Who’s vying for a 1-seed position?

In addition to St Cloud St and Notre Dame, the rest of the top 6 are also likely to be vying for top 4 slots this weekend.

#3 Cornell is unlikely to climb, but is hoping not to fall as low as #7.

#4 Denver could climb to #2 with stumbles by those ahead of them, but could also fall as low as #7 with a poor performance.

#5 Mankato could climb to #3, but could fall as low as #8.

#6 Ohio State could climb as high as #3, or slip a little to #7.

Biggest upside potential of the weekend

#24 Colorado College is the big upside team of the week. If the Tigers sweep and all goes well, they could climb as high as #12 and firmly onto the bubble. The #14-16 range is more likely with a sweep, but even that would represent a tremendous one week climb.

Biggest downside potential of the weekend

As often seems to be the case this time of year, around the #10-12 range can be precarious. These teams face a lot of downside potential if swept, and usually not much upside potential with a sweep. They generally need to win just to hang on, or rely on significant losses above them to climb.

#8 Providence could fall as low as #16 if swept, though #13-14 is a bit more likely.

#10 Nebraksa-Omaha could fall as low as #18 if swept, though #14-15 is more likely.

#11 Minnesota-Duluth could fall as low as #19 if swept, though #16-17 are a bit more likely.

Biggest range of outcomes for the weekend

This usually comes from the 30s, where win-loss records and RPI are both in the .500 range and there’s lots of potential to climb or fall out of the pack.

This week’s biggest potential mover is #30 Yale. The Bulldogs could climb as high as about #21 with two wins or fall as low as #39 with two losses, a range of 18 positions of likely outcomes!

How it works

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

• PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• Forecasted PWR by team wins (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

As mentioned in today’s previous article, Who’s likely to make the NCAA tournament?, most teams only have 4-6 remaining scheduled games before the playoffs, so dramatic opportunities for repositioning themselves are diminishing.

PWR Forecast (by wins)

#10 Nebraska-Omaha through #17 Penn State generally stand a chance of finishing in the top 10 if they win out, or they could fall off the bubble (#16 or below) if they earn just a win or two. Those who earn a couple wins will get jostled around on the bubble by their neighbors who do particularly well or poorly. Those teams include:
#10 Nebraska-Omaha
#11 Minnesota-Duluth
#12 North Dakota
#13 Western Michigan
#14 Michigan
#15 Northeastern
#16 Northern Michigan
#17 Penn State

The teams just below them need to approach perfection to get into position for an at-large bid. #18 Bowling Green through #24 Maine stand a chance of breaking onto the bubble at the end of the regular season (as high as about #12) if they win out. Those teams include:

#18 Bowling Green
#19 Boston University
#20 Wisconsin
#21 Boston College
#22 Union
#23 Colorado College
#24 Maine

#25 Mass.-Lowell and below appear very unlikely to climb to #12 even if they win out, meaning their only likely path to an NCAA tournament bid is success in the conference tournaments. (#27 Miami has a bit more likely path than its neighbors by virtue of having six games remaining rather than 4).

How it works

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

• PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• Forecasted PWR by team wins (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

It’s been just over a month since I posted the First PWR forecast of the season, and things have really settled in.

PWR Forecast (by wins)

Most teams only have 4-6 remaining scheduled games before the playoffs, so dramatic opportunities for repositioning themselves are diminishing.

Just a few weeks ago, in First look at 2018 tournament likelihoods, I noted that all but Notre Dame and Clarkson still needed to win about half their remaining games to stay well-positioned for the NCAA tournament.

Thanks to sufficient performances since then, quite a few more teams are starting to look pretty safe.

Through #6 are nearly guaranteed to stay top 12, even if they lose out, leaving them well-positioned going into the playoffs. Those teams are:

#1 St Cloud St
#2 Denver
#3 Notre Dame
#4 Cornell
#5 Mankato
#6 Ohio State

Through #9 Minnesota are almost sure to stay top 12 with even just one more win. That adds the following to the well-positioned (though not at all guaranteed!):

#7 Clarkson
#8 Providence
#9 Minnesota

How it works

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

• PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• Forecasted PWR by team wins (CollegeHockeyRanked.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)