Let’s try something a little different this week — does anyone have any questions about rankings (PWR, probably being most interesting)?
The next two weeks are interesting because the schedules aren’t firm. Some conferences will begin conference tournaments, some have a week or two of regular season play left.
I’ll still try to make some regular posts later in the week, but this is your chance to find out what YOU really want to know.
A few questions are rolling in on Twitter already, so I’ll copy them here.
MikeAbelson4324
@chranked Any chance the NCAA starts weaning itself relying exclusively on the PWR in the future?
3/1/15, 3:05 PM
chranked
@mikeabelson4324 The committee could do anything, but has shown no sign of moving to subjective selection.
3/1/15, 3:07 PM
chranked
@mikeabelson4324 Remember that PWR just simulates the combination of factors the committee considers, which do change every couple years.
3/1/15, 3:07 PM
This is an important point — PWR isn’t a simple mathematical ranking (like KRACH) that has a constant definition, and the committee doesn’t follow PWR.
Rather, PWR is what we call the tables that simulate the NCAA selection criteria. Those criteria have changed over the years (for example, record vs. teams under consideration was dropped last year), and we change what we call “PWR” accordingly.
So, the criteria are likely to continue to change, but we’ll continue to try to produce PWR until or unless the committee intentionally makes the selection criteria more ambiguous (arbitrary decisions in the smoke-filled room).
Jim, I’m interested in UNO’s scenarios.
Their situation is almost crazy. I think they could possibly end up having home ice in the NCHC tourney against a team that might have a higher pairwise ranking than they do. I am talking UMD here.
And, on the flip side, I am wondering what a CC sweep in Omaha next weekend might do to their tourney chances along with a quick 2 game exit for them in the conference tourney. Would that conceivably have them on the outside of the NCAA tourney looking in?
Another possibility is they sweep CC next weekend, win their way to Minneapolis in the first round of the NCHC tourney, where they win at least one game. My GUESS is that that would be enough for them to get a #1 national seed in the NCAA’s.
Their lot in life possibilities seem to be all over the spectrum right now. What do you see?
Yeah, from #5 it’s all downside. You pretty much have to win to maintain your ranking. You only get to climb if someone above you stumbles.
Starting with next weekend — if CC swept, UNO would probably fall to #10-12. From there, getting swept out of the conference tournament could definitely push them out of an at-large bid.
Next most important for UNO (other than winning) seems to be losses from Denver and Michigan Tech, presumably to keep those two at bay. I assume this is most important in those scenarios in which UNO loses but doesn’t want to fall as much.
Climbing to a #1 seed requires someone in the top 4 to stumble. Fortunately, you already have #1 North Dakota and #4 Miami set to play a pair. With #1, #3 (Duluth), and #4 all going into the same conference tournament with UNO, someone’s going to lose so the opportunity will be there for whoever wins.
You also need to think about a team like BU wouldn’t you? If BU were to run the table in the HE tourney, could they jump UNO as well?
BU’s results didn’t show up as particularly important for UNO.
That doesn’t mean they can’t pass UNO; rather, it probably means that BU is guaranteed to overtake UNO if UNO loses, regardless of BU’s own results.
Phrased differently — the UNO/BU comparison currently seems largely in UNO’s hands.
thejtmanek
@chranked @SchlossmanGF how are Mankato and UND so close in PW considering UND’s SOS?
3/1/15, 3:21 PM
First, UND and Mankato’s SOSs aren’t that different (#8 and #13 according to RPI)
But that difference is overcome by Mankato having better “weightings” due to more road games (3 more than UND)
Do you do Women’s PWR?
No. I tried a while back and it’s just different enough that it would take a substantial effort.
For UND – How many games do they need to win this weekend and next weekend to ensure they get an at-large bid? Are they already a lock?
Yeah, pretty much a lock at this point. If they get swept this weekend, they likely just fall to #2.
After that, the worst they can do is go 0-2 in the conference tournament quarterfinals, which shouldn’t be enough to push them into the teens.