I’m pleased to announce an improvement to the way I present PWR forecasts this year. There were two guiding principles to the design of the new presentation:
- The question people are really asking until conference tournaments begin is, “what will it take for my team to make the playoffs (or finish top 4)?”
- Everyone is interested in something a little different—some are fans of a single team and just care about that team, some want to check up on rivals, and some want to dig through all the data to look for interesting outcomes.
My forecast posts in past years gave some insight into what it takes for a team to make the playoffs, but was limited to the teams I chose or scenarios I found interesting. To help expand that analysis to all teams, I sought a useful way to present all the data.
The table on the PWR By Wins page shows you how many wins each team needs to likely finish at each PWR ranking. If you want more detail on a specific team, you can click a team name to see the probability curves of how likely that team is to end the regular season with each PWR ranking with a given number of wins out of its remaining scheduled games.
This is the first public presentation of this, so I’m sure there will be some tweaks and improvements in coming weeks. Check it out, and let me know if there’s anything I can do to make this data more useful to you.
What does it take for each team to finish at each PWR rankings: PWR By Wins
The page notes when the forecast was last run (assume that it includes all games that had been completed as of that time).
Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.
The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.
I’m pleased to announce CollegeHockeyRanked’s new ratings tables and tools. Though everything covered by this announcement is based on a previous product from another site of mine, SiouxSports.com, each has been redesigned from the ground up. The rankings include tables for RPI, PWR, and KRACH plus a comparison table of teams’ ranks across multiple ranking schemes. The historical charts page lets you view the history of KRACH, RPI and/or PWR over the course of the season in a graphical format (with coverage of over 10 seasons). Finally, the conference standings “what if” calculator lets you see what effect predicted game outcomes will have on the conference standings.
Two major design principles make these tables and tools different from previous versions on SiouxSports.com and other sites:
- Phone, tablet, and computer support – Each was designed to be responsive to screen size to have full functionality on any size screen, but still take advantage of the extra real estate available if viewed on a large screen.
- Supporting details – The RPI and PWR ranking tables provide a wealth of background information as to how the rankings were calculated, including information that could help you think about how future games are likely to affect those rankings. The RPI Details page (see Minnesota Duluth example) in particular was designed from the ground up to give better insight into the impact of individual game outcomes on RPI under the new RPI formula that has been in use the last couple seasons.
Getting these basic tables and tools designed for the modern web, a variety of devices, and the new RPI formula is the foundation on which I hope to build some exciting new tools and analysis in coming months and years. Stay tuned!
This site will be the home of my future musings and analysis on college hockey rankings, particularly the RPI and pairwise (PWR) rankings that mimic the NCAA’s D-I men’s hockey tournament selection process.
This isn’t a new endeavor for me, just a new home. I’ve long been interested in the rankings, and over the years have participated in a lot of message board analysis and prognostication. The types of questions I like to think about are:
- What would happen to its PWR if Boston College swept this weekend?
- Is Minnesota a lock for the tournament?
- What does Quinnipiac need to do for the rest of the season to make the tournament?
- Which of Miami’s comparisons are most likely to flip?
Over the years, I’ve built a set of calculators and tools to help myself and others answer questions like the above. Many of those tools were posted at SiouxSports.com (another site of mine). They include the following:
For the past seven seasons I’ve also been running simulations of the remaining college hockey season to forecast what could happen to PWR in coming games.
My goal with this site is to try to bring together all of that ranking news and analysis (and perhaps some exciting new stuff) into one place so it’s easier for people to find and use. I hope that separating it from the North Dakota-specific content of SiouxSports.com will make it more accessible to the broader college hockey community.
The first step is this blog, so watch for some new analysis soon!