Two weeks ago I identified 28 teams as still in the hunt for at-large bids. Of the 26 that are still in the hunt, 9 seem to have their at-large hopes on the line this weekend. For those teams, getting swept would seemingly knock them out of contention for an at-large bid.

As always, you might find it helpful to follow along in the end of season PWR forecast.

Who’s in the running, no matter what happens this weekend?

As mentioned weeks ago, the top 3 are essentially (though perhaps not mathematically) locks. Those are:
#1 North Dakota
#2 Minnesota St
#3 Cornell

For a big range of teams, a pair of wins this weekend would make their minimum likely end-of-season finish in the #11-13 range–not quite guaranteed a bid, but very likely. Those are:
#4 Minnesota-Duluth
#5 Denver
#6 Boston College
#7 Clarkson
#8 Massachusetts
#9 Penn St
#10 Arizona St
#11 Northeastern

Then, there just a couple teams that would still control their own destiny with a pair of losses this weekend. These teams could finish the regular season as high as #11-13 despite a pair of losses this weekend if they win the remainder of their games and get a bit lucky.

#12 Bemidji St
#13 Ohio St

Then, it gets interesting. The #14-28 block contains teams that would still be alive if swept interspersed with some that would seemingly be knocked out contention for an at-large bid if swept this weekend.

The teams that still seem to have a chance at an at-large bid, even if swept this weekend, are:
#15 Western Michigan
#16 Mass. Lowell
#17 Minnesota
#27 St Cloud St

Of those, only #15 Western Michigan could be deemed likely to have a shot at an at-large bid if they get swept this weekend but win out. The rest would be long shots after getting swept, even if they won out after that.

Who needs a win this weekend?

For most in that #14-28 range, however, getting swept this weekend would likely knock them out of contention for an at-large bid and put them in the position of needing a conference tournament win to make the NCAAs. Those teams are:

#14 Maine
#18 Quinnipiac
#19 Providence
#20 Michigan
#21 Boston University
#22 Notre Dame
#23 Michigan St
#26 Nebraska-Omaha
#28 New Hampshire

The first few of those can stay alive with a single win, while most need a pair of wins to stay in the hunt.

Whose only hope seem to be a conference tournament championship?

The rest of the teams don’t really stand much of a chance of an at-large bid anymore, no matter what happens. Those are:

#24 Northern Michigan
#25 Harvard
#29 American International
#30 Michigan Tech
#31 Bowling Green
#32 Sacred Heart
#33 Alaska
#34 RIT
#35 Army
#36 Wisconsin
#37 Dartmouth
#38 Yale
#39 Connecticut
#40 Rensselaer
#41 Colorado College
#42 Miami
#43 Colgate
#44 Lake Superior
#45 Holy Cross
#46 Bentley
#47 Merrimack
#48 Robert Morris
#49 Niagara
#50 Air Force
#51 Canisius
#52 Ferris St
#53 Union
#54 Brown
#55 Vermont
#56 Princeton
#57 Alaska Anchorage
#58 Alabama-Huntsville
#59 St. Lawrence
#60 Mercyhurst