In contention teams’ tournament probabilities by outcome

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Here are some more detailed probabilities for teams with a possibility of making the NCAA tournament at-large.

The following conclusions are based on an exhaustive search of all possible remaining outcomes (about 3,145,728 of them). Any percentages given are not weighted by likelihood or team strength, but instead represent the share of remaining scenarios in which that outcome occurs.

See the previous post—Conference tournament weekend PWR outlook—for a less statistical, more descriptive explanation.

I’ll dive deeper into some of the more interesting teams in coming days.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
UMN #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #2 99.5%
#3 0.5%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Union #2 0.5%
#3 99.5%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#2     2.0%
#3 100.0% 100.0% 98.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ferris State #4 42.8%
#5 33.9%
#6 19.2%
#7 3.9%
#8 0.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4 23.2% 32.3% 92.3%
#5 43.3% 41.4% 7.7%
#6 27.4% 21.9%  
#7 6.0% 3.6%  
#8 0.0% 0.8%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
UW #4 22.3%
#5 17.6%
#6 22.6%
#7 27.0%
#8 8.6%
#9 1.9%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4   9.5% 79.7%
#5 7.2% 37.0% 18.9%
#6 24.9% 39.2% 1.4%
#7 47.4% 13.2% 0.1%
#8 16.7% 1.1%  
#9 3.8%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Quinnipiac #4 12.6%
#5 19.9%
#6 28.2%
#7 32.3%
#8 6.7%
#9 0.3%
#10 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4   2.2% 48.1%
#5 7.9% 23.6% 40.4%
#6 29.5% 43.1% 10.6%
#7 50.0% 28.4% 0.9%
#8 11.9% 2.8%  
#9 0.7%    
#10 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #4 8.9%
#5 9.9%
#6 8.8%
#7 24.3%
#8 37.7%
#9 10.3%
#10 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4     35.5%
#5   1.3% 38.5%
#6 0.5% 16.4% 17.5%
#7 20.6% 47.6% 8.5%
#8 58.3% 34.4%  
#9 20.4% 0.2%  
#10 0.2%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Notre Dame #4 13.4%
#5 12.7%
#6 9.3%
#7 6.1%
#8 44.1%
#9 14.0%
#10 0.4%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4   0.3% 53.3%
#5   13.0% 37.8%
#6 0.0% 29.0% 8.3%
#7 4.6% 15.0% 0.0%
#8 69.5% 36.7% 0.6%
#9 25.1% 5.9%  
#10 0.8%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Providence #4 0.1%
#5 5.9%
#6 11.9%
#7 6.3%
#8 0.0%
#9 21.5%
#10 21.8%
#11 21.7%
#12 8.9%
#13 1.7%
#14 0.2%
#15 0.0%
Tournament invites: 98.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4     0.4%
#5     23.7%
#6     47.5%
#7     25.4%
#8     0.0%
#9 1.8% 79.3% 3.0%
#10 33.5% 20.1%  
#11 43.0% 0.6%  
#12 17.9%    
#13 3.5%    
#14 0.3%    
#15 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 97.4% 100.0% 100.0%
SCSU #8 0.1%
#9 36.2%
#10 48.8%
#11 13.5%
#12 1.3%
#13 0.0%
Tournament invites: >99%		 n/a
Michigan #6 0.1%
#7 0.0%
#8 2.6%
#9 7.1%
#10 3.0%
#11 10.4%
#12 17.2%
#13 15.9%
#14 17.8%
#15 16.2%
#16 8.0%
#17 1.5%
#18 0.2%
Tournament invites: 59.9%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#6       0.6%
#7       0.0%
#8       20.6%
#9     0.1% 56.6%
#10     2.2% 22.2%
#11 0.0% 22.0% 38.9%  
#12 2.7% 43.4% 40.0%  
#13 14.8% 25.5% 16.8%  
#14 31.4% 7.5% 2.0%  
#15 31.6% 1.5%    
#16 15.8% 0.1%    
#17 3.0%      
#18 0.5%      
Tournament invites: 22.7% 95.9% 96.5% 100.0%
Mankato #9 0.1%
#10 4.1%
#11 14.1%
#12 10.7%
#13 10.0%
#14 13.3%
#15 15.9%
#16 15.4%
#17 7.8%
#18 7.7%
#19 0.8%
#20 0.0%
Tournament invites: 41.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     0.4%
#10     16.3%
#11   2.9% 53.7%
#12 0.2% 16.1% 26.4%
#13 2.8% 31.3% 3.1%
#14 11.9% 29.3% 0.0%
#15 24.5% 14.7%  
#16 28.4% 4.6%  
#17 15.0% 1.1%  
#18 15.5%    
#19 1.7%    
#20 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 6.4% 54.1% 100.0%
UND #10 1.0%
#11 9.6%
#12 16.4%
#13 16.6%
#14 14.4%
#15 9.6%
#16 7.0%
#17 16.4%
#18 7.9%
#19 1.0%
#20 0.0%
Tournament invites: 42.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#10   0.0% 4.0%
#11   2.4% 34.2%
#12   13.4% 43.4%
#13 0.0% 30.0% 16.5%
#14 0.8% 32.9% 1.9%
#15 6.9% 17.5%  
#16 16.5% 3.7%  
#17 49.1%    
#18 23.7%    
#19 2.9%    
#20 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.5% 42.0% 100.0%
Vermont #10 0.8%
#11 6.7%
#12 23.3%
#13 34.2%
#14 24.7%
#15 9.1%
#16 1.3%
Tournament invites: 69.2%		 n/a
Colgate #9 0.1%
#10 9.1%
#11 14.6%
#12 12.1%
#13 8.1%
#14 5.5%
#15 7.9%
#16 16.6%
#17 18.9%
#18 6.7%
#19 0.4%
Tournament invites: 45.4%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     0.3%
#10   1.7% 34.8%
#11   14.5% 44.1%
#12 0.0% 30.2% 18.0%
#13 0.2% 29.2% 2.6%
#14 2.7% 16.4% 0.1%
#15 12.5% 6.4%  
#16 32.4% 1.7%  
#17 37.8%    
#18 13.5%    
#19 0.9%    
Tournament invites: 2.1% 77.1% 100.0%
Cornell #9 8.5%
#10 10.9%
#11 9.4%
#12 9.3%
#13 7.6%
#14 3.4%
#15 2.0%
#16 11.1%
#17 29.0%
#18 8.2%
#19 0.6%
Tournament invites: 46.2%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     34.1%
#10   1.4% 42.1%
#11   17.2% 20.4%
#12   34.2% 3.2%
#13   30.1% 0.2%
#14 0.1% 13.3%  
#15 2.3% 3.4%  
#16 22.0% 0.4%  
#17 58.0%    
#18 16.4%    
#19 1.1%    
Tournament invites: < 1% 84.7% 100.0%
New Hampshire #12 0.3%
#13 2.2%
#14 6.1%
#15 8.6%
#16 5.9%
#17 5.6%
#18 12.8%
#19 20.0%
#20 28.2%
#21 9.2%
#22 1.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#12     1.4%
#13     9.0%
#14     24.4%
#15     34.2%
#16     23.7%
#17   16.4% 6.1%
#18   49.9% 1.1%
#19 24.7% 30.5%  
#20 54.8% 3.2%  
#21 18.3% 0.0%  
#22 2.2%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Northeastern #12 0.3%
#13 3.5%
#14 13.9%
#15 29.1%
#16 32.3%
#17 13.9%
#18 6.6%
#19 0.3%
Tournament invites: 8.8%		 n/a
Western Michigan #15 0.0%
#16 0.0%
#17 4.1%
#18 14.8%
#19 22.5%
#20 30.4%
#21 18.3%
#22 6.8%
#23 2.3%
#24 0.7%
#25 0.2%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#15     0.0%
#16     0.1%
#17   0.5% 15.5%
#18   3.2% 53.8%
#19   37.4% 27.6%
#20 30.5% 46.8% 3.0%
#21 40.1% 11.8%  
#22 20.2% 0.2%  
#23 6.8%    
#24 2.0%    
#25 0.5%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #13 0.1%
#14 0.7%
#15 1.6%
#16 2.4%
#17 2.8%
#18 6.5%
#19 6.7%
#20 5.9%
#21 10.3%
#22 10.9%
#23 14.1%
#24 22.6%
#25 11.8%
#26 3.2%
#27 0.3%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#13       1.1%
#14       5.7%
#15       13.0%
#16       19.1%
#17       22.8%
#18     22.2% 29.4%
#19     44.5% 9.0%
#20   9.6% 27.6% 0.0%
#21   38.4% 5.7%  
#22 0.0% 43.6% 0.0%  
#23 24.0% 8.3%    
#24 45.3% 0.0%    
#25 23.7%      
#26 6.4%      
#27 0.6%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Bowling Green #19 0.4%
#20 6.7%
#21 14.1%
#22 3.8%
#23 1.8%
#24 11.6%
#25 19.2%
#26 24.8%
#27 17.7%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#19     1.5%
#20     26.7%
#21     56.3%
#22     15.3%
#23   6.9% 0.2%
#24 4.9% 36.6%  
#25 20.0% 36.7%  
#26 40.9% 17.4%  
#27 34.1% 2.4%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
AA #18 0.0%
#19 0.3%
#20 6.7%
#21 12.4%
#22 4.6%
#23 5.5%
#24 8.2%
#25 12.5%
#26 31.0%
#27 18.8%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     0.0%
#19     1.0%
#20     27.0%
#21     49.5%
#22   0.1% 18.4%
#23   17.8% 4.1%
#24 0.2% 32.4%  
#25 3.2% 43.7%  
#26 59.2% 5.6%  
#27 37.4% 0.4%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Denver #20 0.0%
#21 8.5%
#22 10.5%
#23 5.0%
#24 4.5%
#25 16.6%
#26 7.6%
#27 12.1%
#28 18.1%
#29 16.5%
#30 0.6%
#31 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#20     0.0%
#21     34.0%
#22     42.2%
#23     19.9%
#24   8.5% 3.9%
#25   39.8%  
#26 0.2% 18.1%  
#27 5.0% 25.0%  
#28 43.8% 8.4%  
#29 49.1% 0.3%  
#30 1.8%    
#31 0.1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst #27 0.2%
#28 0.9%
#29 23.6%
#30 0.4%
#31 32.1%
#32 35.1%
#33 7.1%
#34 0.6%
#35 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#27     0.9%
#28     3.7%
#29   0.0% 94.5%
#30   1.2% 0.3%
#31 31.4% 64.9% 0.7%
#32 54.8% 30.7%  
#33 12.6% 3.1%  
#34 1.3%    
#35 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Miami #27 0.2%
#28 0.5%
#29 6.4%
#30 14.4%
#31 15.7%
#32 20.3%
#33 7.8%
#34 17.3%
#35 8.2%
#36 4.9%
#37 4.4%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#27     0.9%
#28     2.0%
#29     25.6%
#30   0.0% 57.6%
#31   29.8% 13.1%
#32 0.0% 48.2% 0.7%
#33 1.1% 17.7%  
#34 46.4% 4.3%  
#35 24.7% 0.0%  
#36 14.7%    
#37 13.1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan State #27 1.0%
#28 2.0%
#29 4.6%
#30 3.0%
#31 2.0%
#32 1.5%
#33 2.3%
#34 4.8%
#35 7.2%
#36 6.8%
#37 31.0%
#38 33.8%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#27       8.0%
#28       15.9%
#29       37.1%
#30       24.0%
#31     3.9% 12.4%
#32     9.6% 2.4%
#33     18.3% 0.2%
#34   0.9% 36.5%  
#35   12.9% 31.7%  
#36   27.1%    
#37 32.5% 59.1%    
#38 67.5%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Robert Morris #44 20.4%
#45 4.6%
#46 0.0%
#47 14.4%
#48 49.7%
#49 10.8%
#50 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#44     81.4%
#45     18.5%
#46   0.0% 0.1%
#47 5.3% 47.2%  
#48 74.6% 49.7%  
#49 20.1% 3.1%  
#50 0.1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Canisius #44 0.1%
#45 7.4%
#46 9.7%
#47 7.8%
#48 17.0%
#49 36.5%
#50 19.6%
#51 1.9%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#44     0.5%
#45     29.5%
#46     38.8%
#47     31.2%
#48 12.1% 43.8%  
#49 47.9% 50.0%  
#50 36.1% 6.2%  
#51 3.9%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Niagara #45 2.6%
#46 6.1%
#47 24.6%
#48 8.0%
#49 7.3%
#50 41.4%
#51 9.9%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#45     10.5%
#46     24.4%
#47   33.2% 65.0%
#48   32.0% 0.1%
#49 0.4% 28.6%  
#50 79.8% 6.2%  
#51 19.8%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Penn State #45 0.0%
#46 0.2%
#47 2.8%
#48 9.2%
#49 2.2%
#50 2.7%
#51 11.2%
#52 69.7%
#53 2.0%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#45       0.0%
#46       1.3%
#47       22.3%
#48     4.0% 70.0%
#49     11.0% 6.4%
#50     21.4%  
#51   13.2% 63.6%  
#52 95.9% 86.8%    
#53 4.1%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

The calculation ambiguity mentioned in the previous post has been resolved.

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  1. Pingback: Unlikely outcomes– how BC and Union swap; Providence and SCSU miss; and UND, Colgate, and Cornell make it without any more wins | Jim Dahl's College Hockey Ranked

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