Poised to climb

#44 Michigan State (8-12-3) probably isn’t on anyone’s radar, but if they pull off an unlikely sweep at Minnesota, the Spartans can jump as many as 17 spots to the high 20s. That demonstrates the power of the quality win bonus (QWB) which would contribute .05 RPI points, or about a 3 spot jump, for two wins over the #1 (though perhaps then #2) team at home.

Lest Spartans fans get too excited, the rest of Michigan State’s schedule isn’t so kind, so it would really take winning out the season to complete the climb into the teens.

The only teams outside the top 20 with a good shot (over 1%) of climbing into the top 14 this weekend are:

• #21 Western Michigan (could climb as high as #11)
• #22 New Hampshire (could climb as high as #13)

Again, each would be helped in their ascent by the QWB.

Poised to fall

Highly ranked teams with significant downside potential include:

• #10 Michigan (could fall as low as #21)
• #14 Minnesota-Duluth (could fall as low as #24)

Bubble teams of interest

Finally, #16 Clarkson and #18 Yale are having their moments in the sun. Each could climb into place for an at-large bid, or fall deep into the 20s.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

• Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)