Pairwise Ranking outlook for this weekend

Quite a few teams have an opportunity to make big moves this weekend.

Before I jump into the weekend’s forecast, be warned that some dispute has arisen in the college hockey online media world over the proper implementation of the NCAA’s 2014 revisions to the tournament selection process (see Uncertainty around PWR calculation). These forecasts currently assume the USCHO PWR formula.

Review of last week’s forecasts

Last week I highlighted the teams poised to make the biggest moves with extraordinary performances (both positive and negative).

Of Yale, Clarkson, Michigan, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, and Michigan State, only New Hampshire delivered the necessary extraordinary performance. As predicted, the then #22 Wildcats experienced a significant move up, landing at #14 going into this weekend.

Poised to climb

A few teams in the 20s face particularly lopsided upside opportunities this weekend.

#23 Ohio State is most likely to jump to 15-18 with a sweep (though as high as 13 is plausible)
#26 Brown is most likely to jump to 17-18 with two wins (though as high as 14 is plausible)
#20 Yale is most likely to jump to 12-14 with two wins (though as high as 11 is plausible)




Poised to fall

Just inside the bubble seems to be a bad place to be, as a few teams in the teens face particularly lopsided downside opportunities this weekend.

#13 Minnesota-Duluth is most likely to fall to 19-20 if swept (though as low as 23 is plausible)
#14 New Hampshire is most likely to fall to 21-22 if swept (though as low as 25 is plausible)
#15 North Dakota is most likely to fall to 22-23 if swept (though as low as 26 is plausible)
#16 Notre Dame is most likely to fall to 23-24 if swept (though as low as 27 is plausible)





Could go either way

The #11 Wisconsin Badgers face the biggest combined upside/downside. Though their most likely outcomes are climbing up to 7-8 with a sweep or falling to 18-20 if swept, as high as #4 or as low as #23 after this weekend are plausible.



Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.


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