A look at all the remaining tournament possibilities

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I ran all 3,145,728 remaining possible outcomes, and here’s a first pass on the percentage of remaining scenarios each team makes the NCAA tournament:

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
UND #1 76.7%
#2 23.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1 61.2% 75.2% 100.0%
#2 38.8% 24.8%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mankato #1 23.3%
#2 76.7%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1 1.0% 16.5% 74.7%
#2 99.0% 83.5% 25.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Denver #3 43.6%
#4 21.2%
#5 12.3%
#6 5.1%
#7 17.8%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 2.2% 42.8% 100.0%
#4 12.0% 41.3%  
#5 19.4% 14.0%  
#6 13.0% 1.9%  
#7 53.3%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston University #3 20.2%
#4 27.3%
#5 23.6%
#6 21.7%
#7 7.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 1.2% 11.7% 66.5%
#4 11.3% 55.7% 31.0%
#5 32.2% 27.7% 2.4%
#6 41.0% 4.7%  
#7 14.3% 0.2%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
MTech #3 15.8%
#4 16.1%
#5 15.8%
#6 31.0%
#7 21.4%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3   4.0% 59.2%
#4 0.1% 28.6% 35.5%
#5 5.3% 47.2% 5.3%
#6 52.5% 18.8%  
#7 42.1% 1.4%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
UMD #3 3.6%
#4 22.3%
#5 36.3%
#6 27.9%
#7 10.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Miami #3 16.9%
#4 13.1%
#5 12.0%
#6 14.3%
#7 41.8%
#8 1.7%
#9 0.2%
#10 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3   3.6% 61.7%
#4   11.3% 33.5%
#5   26.0% 4.8%
#6   34.2%  
#7 94.4% 24.9%  
#8 5.1%    
#9 0.6%    
#10 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Nebraska-Omaha #8 53.0%
#9 36.2%
#10 9.7%
#11 1.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Boston College #8 0.0%
#9 8.1%
#10 24.9%
#11 31.8%
#12 23.7%
#13 9.5%
#14 1.8%
#15 0.1%
Tournament invites: 99.2%		 n/a
Quinnipiac #7 0.1%
#8 0.3%
#9 16.1%
#10 12.6%
#11 11.1%
#12 14.8%
#13 20.1%
#14 16.2%
#15 7.1%
#16 1.6%
#17 0.1%
Tournament invites: 82.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#7     0.2%
#8     1.2%
#9   0.0% 64.4%
#10 0.0% 19.8% 30.6%
#11 1.6% 37.7% 3.4%
#12 16.3% 26.2% 0.1%
#13 34.7% 10.9%  
#14 30.2% 4.5%  
#15 13.8% 0.9%  
#16 3.2%    
#17 0.2%    
Tournament invites: 67.5% 95.0% 100.0%
SCSU #7 1.8%
#8 21.0%
#9 7.4%
#10 10.1%
#11 13.0%
#12 10.4%
#13 6.7%
#14 6.2%
#15 6.2%
#16 5.0%
#17 5.2%
#18 6.0%
#19 0.9%
#20 0.1%
#21 0.0%
Tournament invites: 73.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#7     7.3%
#8     84.0%
#9   12.7% 8.6%
#10 0.0% 24.0% 0.2%
#11 0.4% 30.8%  
#12 3.0% 22.6%  
#13 9.7% 8.4%  
#14 16.7% 1.4%  
#15 18.4% 0.1%  
#16 15.0%    
#17 15.6%    
#18 18.0%    
#19 2.8%    
#20 0.4%    
#21 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 19.5% 99.8% 100.0%
Bowling Green #7 0.0%
#8 20.9%
#9 6.2%
#10 5.3%
#11 8.7%
#12 11.0%
#13 13.2%
#14 15.7%
#15 12.1%
#16 5.5%
#17 1.3%
Tournament invites: 72.6%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#7     0.1%
#8     83.5%
#9   10.9% 14.0%
#10 0.3% 18.6% 2.2%
#11 2.7% 29.3% 0.2%
#12 9.2% 25.5%  
#13 20.3% 12.4%  
#14 29.9% 3.0%  
#15 24.1% 0.3%  
#16 11.1%    
#17 2.5%    
Tournament invites: 46.5% 97.4% 100.0%
UMN #8 1.0%
#9 9.0%
#10 10.8%
#11 4.6%
#12 2.9%
#13 5.0%
#14 12.9%
#15 21.4%
#16 17.6%
#17 10.8%
#18 4.2%
Tournament invites: 36.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#8     3.9%
#9     35.9%
#10   0.4% 42.7%
#11   2.6% 15.7%
#12   9.6% 1.8%
#13 1.2% 17.6% 0.0%
#14 12.3% 26.8%  
#15 30.5% 24.9%  
#16 28.4% 13.5%  
#17 19.2% 4.7%  
#18 8.4%    
Tournament invites: 4.2% 35.7% 100.0%
Providence #10 1.4%
#11 8.7%
#12 21.6%
#13 30.0%
#14 24.7%
#15 11.3%
#16 2.3%
#17 0.0%
Tournament invites: 74.6%		 n/a
Harvard #8 2.1%
#9 9.1%
#10 8.9%
#11 3.8%
#12 1.1%
#13 1.4%
#14 5.1%
#15 10.7%
#16 16.7%
#17 19.2%
#18 17.7%
#19 3.9%
#20 0.3%
#21 0.0%
Tournament invites: 28.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#8     8.6%
#9     36.5%
#10     35.4%
#11   0.0% 15.1%
#12   0.6% 3.8%
#13 0.0% 5.1% 0.6%
#14 0.1% 20.1% 0.0%
#15 1.8% 39.0%  
#16 18.2% 30.3%  
#17 36.0% 4.8%  
#18 35.4%    
#19 7.8%    
#20 0.6%    
#21 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.4% 11.6% 100.0%
Colgate #9 5.1%
#10 10.1%
#11 6.9%
#12 2.2%
#13 0.6%
#14 1.4%
#15 5.6%
#16 7.9%
#17 7.6%
#18 27.8%
#19 15.2%
#20 8.5%
#21 1.0%
Tournament invites: 26.3%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     20.3%
#10     40.6%
#11     27.7%
#12     8.9%
#13   0.2% 2.2%
#14   5.3% 0.3%
#15 0.1% 22.4% 0.0%
#16 0.7% 30.2%  
#17 3.6% 23.0%  
#18 46.1% 18.9%  
#19 30.4% 0.0%  
#20 17.1%    
#21 2.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 5.4% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #9 1.9%
#10 2.6%
#11 5.8%
#12 7.1%
#13 5.1%
#14 2.7%
#15 5.4%
#16 4.2%
#17 5.6%
#18 10.2%
#19 32.6%
#20 15.2%
#21 1.5%
Tournament invites: 25.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     7.7%
#10     10.5%
#11     23.3%
#12     28.3%
#13   0.2% 20.2%
#14   2.4% 8.2%
#15   20.0% 1.6%
#16 0.0% 16.8% 0.1%
#17 0.5% 21.6%  
#18 2.2% 36.4%  
#19 64.0% 2.5%  
#20 30.3% 0.0%  
#21 3.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 2.9% 100.0%
Yale #11 0.0%
#12 0.4%
#13 1.2%
#14 3.5%
#15 9.2%
#16 22.5%
#17 37.0%
#18 19.8%
#19 4.7%
#20 1.4%
#21 0.2%
Tournament invites: 4.1%		 n/a
Vermont #9 0.6%
#10 3.7%
#11 4.5%
#12 4.9%
#13 7.1%
#14 9.7%
#15 8.5%
#16 7.0%
#17 6.1%
#18 5.6%
#19 25.1%
#20 15.3%
#21 1.8%
#22 0.2%
#23 0.0%
Tournament invites: 27.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     2.4%
#10     14.6%
#11   0.0% 18.0%
#12   0.2% 19.6%
#13   5.4% 22.9%
#14   22.4% 16.2%
#15 0.1% 28.4% 5.6%
#16 1.3% 24.7% 0.7%
#17 4.2% 15.8%  
#18 11.1% 0.5%  
#19 48.8% 2.6%  
#20 30.5%    
#21 3.7%    
#22 0.3%    
#23 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 10.8% 100.0%
St. Lawrence #13 0.0%
#14 0.2%
#15 2.0%
#16 8.9%
#17 5.9%
#18 6.4%
#19 2.0%
#20 41.9%
#21 23.8%
#22 7.3%
#23 1.6%
#24 0.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     0.0%
#14     0.7%
#15     8.2%
#16     35.7%
#17     23.5%
#18     25.5%
#19   2.6% 5.5%
#20 46.9% 72.8% 0.8%
#21 36.8% 21.7% 0.0%
#22 13.1% 2.9%  
#23 3.1% 0.0%  
#24 0.1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan #14 0.0%
#15 0.2%
#16 0.8%
#17 1.2%
#18 2.3%
#19 9.8%
#20 5.4%
#21 30.8%
#22 25.7%
#23 12.2%
#24 7.2%
#25 3.5%
#26 0.8%
#27 0.0%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#14       0.2%
#15       1.8%
#16       6.4%
#17       9.9%
#18       18.6%
#19   7.2% 15.2% 48.9%
#20 0.4% 1.8% 25.6% 12.3%
#21 18.7% 62.0% 45.9% 1.8%
#22 34.6% 27.3% 12.4%  
#23 23.2% 1.7% 0.8%  
#24 14.5%      
#25 6.9%      
#26 1.6%      
#27 0.0%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Robert Morris #19 5.5%
#20 8.3%
#21 19.5%
#22 18.0%
#23 15.7%
#24 16.8%
#25 11.8%
#26 3.7%
#27 0.6%
#28 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#19   0.0% 22.1%
#20 0.0% 0.4% 32.9%
#21 0.5% 37.5% 39.7%
#22 8.6% 49.4% 5.4%
#23 25.1% 12.8%  
#24 33.7%    
#25 23.6%    
#26 7.4%    
#27 1.1%    
#28 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Alaska #20 0.1%
#21 3.2%
#22 15.0%
#23 31.6%
#24 32.9%
#25 15.0%
#26 2.2%
#27 0.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Northeastern #19 0.0%
#20 3.1%
#21 7.1%
#22 20.0%
#23 24.2%
#24 18.3%
#25 14.2%
#26 9.2%
#27 3.7%
#28 0.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Dartmouth #21 0.1%
#22 2.1%
#23 9.6%
#24 18.0%
#25 39.5%
#26 23.3%
#27 7.2%
#28 0.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #20 0.0%
#21 0.0%
#22 0.5%
#23 2.3%
#24 6.2%
#25 14.4%
#26 53.4%
#27 21.4%
#28 1.7%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #19 0.1%
#20 0.4%
#21 10.8%
#22 11.1%
#23 2.6%
#24 0.0%
#25 0.0%
#26 2.8%
#27 19.3%
#28 10.3%
#29 26.7%
#30 15.3%
#31 0.6%
#32 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#19     0.4%
#20     1.7%
#21     43.3%
#22     44.3%
#23     10.4%
#24      
#25   0.1%  
#26   11.2%  
#27 0.1% 77.1%  
#28 14.8% 11.6%  
#29 53.4%    
#30 30.6%    
#31 1.2%    
#32 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Penn State #22 0.2%
#23 0.3%
#24 0.5%
#25 1.6%
#26 4.4%
#27 4.0%
#28 5.2%
#29 6.4%
#30 13.2%
#31 15.6%
#32 21.7%
#33 22.9%
#34 4.1%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#22       1.3%
#23       2.2%
#24       3.7%
#25       12.9%
#26       35.3%
#27     0.4% 31.4%
#28   2.9% 22.6% 13.2%
#29   3.2% 44.3%  
#30   38.7% 28.4%  
#31 10.2% 39.8% 4.2%  
#32 36.4% 14.1%    
#33 45.2% 1.2%    
#34 8.2%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan State #26 0.2%
#27 7.9%
#28 12.3%
#29 5.8%
#30 6.6%
#31 14.8%
#32 18.5%
#33 22.2%
#34 11.6%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#26     0.9%
#27     31.6%
#28     49.4%
#29   5.3% 18.1%
#30 0.0% 26.4%  
#31 11.2% 36.7%  
#32 23.1% 27.7%  
#33 42.4% 3.9%  
#34 23.2%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ferris State #28 0.7%
#29 14.0%
#30 9.2%
#31 3.9%
#32 8.3%
#33 9.8%
#34 48.3%
#35 5.8%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#28     2.6%
#29     56.1%
#30     36.9%
#31   11.2% 4.4%
#32   33.2% 0.0%
#33   39.2%  
#34 88.4% 16.4%  
#35 11.6%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #33 0.0%
#34 5.8%
#35 6.7%
#36 22.9%
#37 23.4%
#38 41.1%
#39 0.1%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#33       0.0%
#34       46.3%
#35     0.0% 53.7%
#36   41.9% 99.4%  
#37 24.9% 43.3% 0.6%  
#38 74.9% 14.8% 0.0%  
#39 0.2%      
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Canisius #35 0.1%
#36 16.4%
#37 14.8%
#38 18.8%
#39 37.5%
#40 12.4%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#35     0.3%
#36     65.5%
#37 0.0% 25.0% 34.2%
#38 25.1% 25.0%  
#39 49.9% 50.0%  
#40 24.9%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst #36 5.8%
#37 10.4%
#38 8.8%
#39 53.2%
#40 20.4%
#41 1.4%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#36     23.4%
#37     41.6%
#38     35.0%
#39 56.6% 99.8% 0.0%
#40 40.7% 0.2%  
#41 2.8%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
RIT #37 12.5%
#38 12.5%
#39 9.1%
#40 14.6%
#41 1.2%
#42 0.0%
#43 5.7%
#44 44.3%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#37     50.0%
#38     50.0%
#39   36.4%  
#40   58.6%  
#41   4.9%  
#42      
#43 11.3% 0.1%  
#44 88.7%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
UW #53 6.7%
#54 5.9%
#55 87.4%
Tournament invites: 12.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
#53       53.8%
#54     0.8% 46.2%
#55 100.0% 100.0% 99.2%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

10 thoughts on “A look at all the remaining tournament possibilities”

  2. SJHovey

    Thanks again Jim. You’re the best in the business. Quick question. Did you find that a tie in the NCHC 3rd place game had any quirky outcomes for teams?

    Reply ↓
  3. Chris Eckes

    Are the %s listed for each team above just % of total scenarios that the team is in or out on? There is no probabilistic aspect of this, right? That’s why teams like UW have a 25% chance of getting in, since there’s a 25% chance of them winning two games if each game has a 50/50 probability?

    Reply ↓
    1. jimdahl

      Correct — share of remaining scenarios, not probability of an outcome.

      I can do weighted outcomes, and maybe will later for comparison. Historically, I’ve found that they give a lot less information by overemphasizing the status quo.

      USCHO and CHN are also both publishing weighted samples–USCHO’s by crowd-sourcing from people who use its calculator, and CHN through a small number of KRACH-weighted Monte Carlos simulations.

      Reply ↓
  4. Tito42

    If SCSU loses 3rd place game they’re out automatically due to < .500 record, correct (even though they theoretically could still finish 15th, maybe 14th, in PWR)?

    Reply ↓
    1. jimdahl

      Correct. Two losses pushes them under .500. A loss and a tie puts them right at .500, so eligible. I’m working on a note on the oddities of the potential tie.

      Reply ↓

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