A look at who can make the tournament (with less math)

The big data dump is in the article below, so here’s a less numeric list of who’s still in position to make the NCAA hockey tournament.

These guys seem in

#1 North Dakota
#2 Minnesota State-Mankato
#3 Denver
#4 Boston University
#5 Michigan Tech
#6 Minnesota Duluth
#7 Miami
#8 Nebraska-Omaha

Can make it at-large

#9 Boston College (idle, >99% of scenarios)
#10 Quinnipiac (70% if they lose, 95% if they win)
#11 St Cloud St (20% if they lose, >99% if they win)
#12 Bowling Green (50% if they lose, 95% if they win)
#13 Minnesota (5% if they lose, 35% if they win)
#14 Providence (idle, 75% of scenarios)
#15 Harvard (<1% if they lose, 10% if they win) #16 Colgate (out if they lose?, 5% if they win) #17 Mass.-Lowell (out if they lose, 3% if they win) #18 Yale (idle, 4% of scenarios) #19 Vermont (out of if they lose, 10% if they win)

Can make it by winning their conference tournament

#20 St. Lawrence
#21 Michigan
#22 Robert Morris
#27 New Hampshire
#30 Penn State
#31 Michigan State
#34 Ferris State
#37 Ohio State
#38 Canisius
#39 Mercyhurst
#40 RIT
#55 Wisconsin

How the “can make it at-large” teams make it

There are 16 slots. 6 go to the winners of the conference tournaments. The next 10 are given to the top PWR teams that haven’t yet been selected (by winning their conference tournament).

Those teams that are still playing can make it by winning their conference tournament and getting the autobid.

If they fall short of that goal, the bubble teams want:

  • To win (if still playing) to maximize their own PWR
  • Other bubble teams to lose to increase PWR
  • Conference tournaments to be won by top teams so lower PWR ranks make it at-large

The winner of Atlantic Hockey will be a team that would not get an at-large bid, taking away one spot. That leaves at most 15 spots for top PWR teams.

The winner of the NCHC will be a team that would get an at-large bid, guaranteeing an extra PWR spot. At least the top 11 PWR teams will make the tournament.

Here’s who else bubble teams should cheer for to win their tournaments to maximize spots:

Big Ten – Minnesota
WCHA – Michigan Tech, Mankato, Bowling Green
Hockey East – Boston University (maybe Vermont, Mass.-Lowell)
ECAC – Quinnipiac (maybe Harvard, Colgate, St. Lawrence)

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