The mathematical long shots for at-large NCAA bids

While #24 Minnesota St is pretty unlikely to climb to an at-large position by the end of the regular season, with a perfect run they could get close enough that an at-large bid wouldn’t be out of the question with some additional success in the conference tournament and a little luck.

The same is true, with decreasing likelihood with the lower ranks, down to about #29 Ferris St.

#24 Minnesota State
#25 Robert Morris
#26 Northeastern
#27 Bowling Green
#29 Ferris State

(Note that #28 Union getting into position for an at-large bid is particularly unlikely — that doesn’t mean mathematically impossible, it just didn’t come up enough in the simulations to be noticeable).



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *