Weekend PWR watch — first conference tournament round

Watching the top

#2 North Dakota used a pair of wins over #13 Nebraska-Omaha to climb past #3 St Cloud, which dropped a pair of games to desperate #15 Minnesota-Duluth. That leaves UND as the only team capable of taking over #1 from idle Quinnipiac this weekend.

und

In last week’s outlook I predicted that the top 12 were generally safe, with no one likely to drop below 14. Though there was some minor shuffling within the group, only Nebraska-Omaha fell out of the top 12, landing at #13 following a pair of losses to North Dakota.

top13

Safe this weekend

This week’s top 12 look similarly safe for another week, with no one likely to come out of the weekend below #13. Note that quite a few of these teams, including #9 Notre Dame, #11 Harvard, and #12 Mass.-Lowell, are insulated against much movement by being idle this weekend. Teams likely safe in the top 13 include:

#1 Quinnipiac
#2 North Dakota
#3 St Cloud St
#4 Providence
#5 Boston College
#6 Michigan
#7 Denver
#8 Yale
#9 Notre Dame
#10 Boston University
#11 Harvard
#12 Mass.-Lowell

uml

Around the bubble

Most teams from #13 Nebraska-Omaha down to #21 Minnesota State could end up on either side of the bubble—at #14 or higher after this weekend, or below 14. The notable exceptions are #16 Minnesota will struggle to climb above #15 and idle #19 Robert Morris isn’t likely to climb beyond #17.

#13 Nebraska-Omaha
#14 Penn State
#15 Minnesota Duluth
#17 Michigan Tech
#18 Miami
#20 Cornell
#21 Minnesota St

uno

mankato

Need to climb

A handful of teams can’t quite make it into position for an at-large bid (which we’re currently calling #14 and better), but can come out of the weekend in the teens, preserving hope for an at-large bid with additional conference tournament success. Those include:
#16 Minnesota
#19 Robert Morris
#22 Northeastern
#23 Clarkson
#25 Rensselaer

minnesota

bobmorris

northeastern

clarkson

renssalaer

Need to win their conference tournaments

Idle #24 St Lawrence, and #26 Bowling Green and below are unlikely to come out of the weekend in the teens, and thus face a steep climb to gain an at-large bid.

slu

bgsu

A couple data notes

The Eastern teams are already in conference tournaments, and thus playing best of three series this weekend. Their “win 2” curves include both the 2-0 and 2-1 scenarios. They are generally double-topped, and the 2-0 scenario is the better outcome.

There seems to be some confusion about whether the Feb. 20 Denver vs CC matchup was a neutral site game. As of now, USCHO, CHN, and the Denver site all list it as a home game for Denver; while collegehockeystats.net and the CC site list it is a neutral site game. This has a minor effect on RPI which does not affect any of the above outcomes; though these calculations assume it was a neutral site.