Who can make the NCAAs – Saturday morning outlook

I’ve crunched through the remaining 192 possible outcomes, and here’s what I think happens tomorrow for each team.

In for sure

St Cloud St
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State

Can still get autobid by winning conference

Atlantic Hockey – Robert Morris or Air Force
ECAC – Princeton (plays Clarkson, already in)
Hockey East – Boston University (plays Providence, already in)
WCHA – Northern Michigan or Michigan Tech

So at least two conferences will be won by a team that takes an autobid, leaving at most 3 at-large spots. Two additional conferences can be won by teams that wouldn’t otherwise make it, which would leave just a single spot.

Can make it at-large

Minnesota Duluth (plays in consolation game)
North Dakota (plays in consolation game)
Boston College

The following analysis of what each team needs is much more of a pencil and paper exercise than the automated forecasts, so please point out any inconsistencies or inaccuracies.

If neither Boston University nor Princeton win, then there will be three slots remaining. Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth each get one and North Dakota and Boston College will be vying for the final slot. UND gets it with a win or a tie; with a loss, UND can still claim it if Michigan Tech wins.

If just one of Boston University or Princeton win, there will be two spots remaining and Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth will get them and North Dakota and Boston College will be left out.

If both of Boston University and Princeton win, there will only be slot remaining. Again, North Dakota and Boston College will be out, but only one of Minnesota or Minnesota Duluth will be selected. To get the upper hand, Minnesota needs UND and any of SCSU, NMU, OSU, or RMU to win.

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