KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking scheme, KRACH, has the feature that it can be used to predict the likelihood of a team winning a matchup against another team. So, it is possible to use KRACH likelihoods to determine the likelihood of each team advancing through each game of the NCAA hockey bracket.

KRACHWestGame 1Game 2
Game 3
Game 4
768.0431. St Cloud St91.92%66.64%48.55%34.19%
67.5264. American Int’l8.08%1.52%0.30%0.05%
284.913. Ohio St48.92%15.36%7.70%3.65%
297.5052. Denver51.08%16.47%8.43%4.08%
359.9521. Massachusetts63.42%36.72%14.74%7.83%
207.5864. Harvard36.58%16.18%4.62%1.84%
249.2973. Notre Dame47.69%21.90%7.05%3.11%
273.4192. Clarkson52.31%25.20%8.60%3.99%
392.3781. Minnesota St65.86%39.54%22.02%10.13%
203.3694. Providence34.14%14.96%5.97%1.88%
230.8413. Cornell44.51%18.94%8.12%2.77%
287.7612. Northeastern55.49%26.56%12.79%4.98%
438.3721. Minnesota Duluth70.53%45.04%26.81%13.03%
183.1974. Bowling Green29.47%12.56%4.82%1.42%
204.1913. Arizona St41.87%15.89%6.51%2.05%
283.4632. Quinnipiac58.13%26.51%12.96%5.00%

On paper, there’s a tremendous advantage to being the #1 seed overall. Not only does St Cloud St have, by about 2-1, the highest KRACH overall; but, they’re also matched up against the lowest KRACH-rated team in the tournament, Atlantic Hockey champ American International. That gap gives the Huskies a formidable 92% chance of winning their opening game, a 67% chance of making the Frozen Four, and a 34% chance of winning the National Championship.

The remaining three regions are reasonably balanced, with each having something between a 17%-22% chance of producing the national champ.

The 1 seeds are reasonably strong, as rated by KRACH, with a 65% chance overall that one of them becomes the national champ.

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