Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking scheme, KRACH, has the feature that it can be used to predict the likelihood of a team winning a matchup against another team. So, it is possible to use KRACH likelihoods to determine the likelihood of each team advancing through each game of the NCAA hockey bracket.
| KRACH | West | Game 1 | Game 2 (Region Champ) | Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal) | Game 4 (National Champ) |
| 768.043 | 1. St Cloud St | 91.92% | 66.64% | 48.55% | 34.19% |
| 67.526 | 4. American Int’l | 8.08% | 1.52% | 0.30% | 0.05% |
| 284.91 | 3. Ohio St | 48.92% | 15.36% | 7.70% | 3.65% |
| 297.505 | 2. Denver | 51.08% | 16.47% | 8.43% | 4.08% |
| Northeast | |||||
| 359.952 | 1. Massachusetts | 63.42% | 36.72% | 14.74% | 7.83% |
| 207.586 | 4. Harvard | 36.58% | 16.18% | 4.62% | 1.84% |
| 249.297 | 3. Notre Dame | 47.69% | 21.90% | 7.05% | 3.11% |
| 273.419 | 2. Clarkson | 52.31% | 25.20% | 8.60% | 3.99% |
| East | |||||
| 392.378 | 1. Minnesota St | 65.86% | 39.54% | 22.02% | 10.13% |
| 203.369 | 4. Providence | 34.14% | 14.96% | 5.97% | 1.88% |
| 230.841 | 3. Cornell | 44.51% | 18.94% | 8.12% | 2.77% |
| 287.761 | 2. Northeastern | 55.49% | 26.56% | 12.79% | 4.98% |
| Midwest | |||||
| 438.372 | 1. Minnesota Duluth | 70.53% | 45.04% | 26.81% | 13.03% |
| 183.197 | 4. Bowling Green | 29.47% | 12.56% | 4.82% | 1.42% |
| 204.191 | 3. Arizona St | 41.87% | 15.89% | 6.51% | 2.05% |
| 283.463 | 2. Quinnipiac | 58.13% | 26.51% | 12.96% | 5.00% |
On paper, there’s a tremendous advantage to being the #1 seed overall. Not only does St Cloud St have, by about 2-1, the highest KRACH overall; but, they’re also matched up against the lowest KRACH-rated team in the tournament, Atlantic Hockey champ American International. That gap gives the Huskies a formidable 92% chance of winning their opening game, a 67% chance of making the Frozen Four, and a 34% chance of winning the National Championship.
The remaining three regions are reasonably balanced, with each having something between a 17%-22% chance of producing the national champ.
The 1 seeds are reasonably strong, as rated by KRACH, with a 65% chance overall that one of them becomes the national champ.
