Tag Archives: KRACH

A new #1 in KRACH

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Unlike PWR (which mimics the tournament selection process) , KRACH is just for fun. But, a lot of people like it and it’s what I use to estimate team strength when simulating game outcomes.

When writing yesterday’s post, I noticed there’s a new king of the hill in PWR – #2 North Dakota.

Only once this season has #1 Minnesota State been knocked out of first place in KRACH, on Dec. 29 by then second-in-PWR Harvard. The following week Harvard also took over first place in PWR. Harvard’s reign was short-lived, as Minnesota State took back the top rankings in both PWR and KRACH on January 12 and have held both until this week.

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KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

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Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking scheme, KRACH, can be used to predict game outcomes. Here’s what KRACH thinks of the NCAA tournament field.

  • KRACH thinks Minnesota has the easiest path to the Frozen Four, with a better than 60% of emerging from its regional.
  • SCSU vs Notre Dame is the most balanced game, with KRACH given about a 1% edge to St Cloud St.
  • Wisconsin is the weakest 1-seed facing the 2nd toughest 4 seed, resulting in only a 56-44 advantage over North Dakota.
  • The Midwest is also the most balanced regional overall, with each team having between a 20-30% chance of advancing.
KRACH West Game 1 Game 2 (Region Champ) Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal) Game 4 (National Champ)
359.406 1. Minnesota 93.19% 61.16% 40.70% 23.41%
26.2834 4. Robert Morris 6.81% 0.84% 0.11% 0.01%
190.458 2. St Cloud St 50.60% 19.36% 9.95% 4.20%
185.96 3. Notre Dame 49.40% 18.65% 9.47% 3.94%
Midwest
198.286 1. Wisconsin 56.35% 29.51% 12.39% 5.35%
153.57 4. North Dakota 43.65% 20.08% 7.25% 2.70%
199.632 2. Ferris St 55.70% 29.49% 12.43% 5.38%
158.776 3. Colgate 44.30% 20.93% 7.71% 2.93%
East
352.088 1. Union 69.46% 45.44% 26.41% 15.61%
154.823 4. Vermont 30.54% 13.88% 5.35% 2.11%
197.646 2. Quinnipiac 53.26% 22.42% 9.93% 4.49%
173.439 3. Providence 46.74% 18.26% 7.52% 3.17%
Northeast
350.585 1. Boston College 76.88% 49.23% 28.98% 17.10%
105.457 4. Denver 23.12% 8.11% 2.50% 0.77%
159.696 2. Minnesota St 41.36% 15.71% 6.28% 2.52%
226.442 3. Mass.-Lowell 58.64% 26.94% 13.02% 6.32%