Tag Archives: KRACH

A new #1 in KRACH

Unlike PWR (which mimics the tournament selection process) , KRACH is just for fun. But, a lot of people like it and it’s what I use to estimate team strength when simulating game outcomes.

When writing yesterday’s post, I noticed there’s a new king of the hill in PWR – #2 North Dakota.

Only once this season has #1 Minnesota State been knocked out of first place in KRACH, on Dec. 29 by then second-in-PWR Harvard. The following week Harvard also took over first place in PWR. Harvard’s reign was short-lived, as Minnesota State took back the top rankings in both PWR and KRACH on January 12 and have held both until this week.

krach

pwr

KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking scheme, KRACH, can be used to predict game outcomes. Here’s what KRACH thinks of the NCAA tournament field.

  • KRACH thinks Minnesota has the easiest path to the Frozen Four, with a better than 60% of emerging from its regional.
  • SCSU vs Notre Dame is the most balanced game, with KRACH given about a 1% edge to St Cloud St.
  • Wisconsin is the weakest 1-seed facing the 2nd toughest 4 seed, resulting in only a 56-44 advantage over North Dakota.
  • The Midwest is also the most balanced regional overall, with each team having between a 20-30% chance of advancing.
KRACH West Game 1 Game 2 (Region Champ) Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal) Game 4 (National Champ)
359.406 1. Minnesota 93.19% 61.16% 40.70% 23.41%
26.2834 4. Robert Morris 6.81% 0.84% 0.11% 0.01%
190.458 2. St Cloud St 50.60% 19.36% 9.95% 4.20%
185.96 3. Notre Dame 49.40% 18.65% 9.47% 3.94%
Midwest
198.286 1. Wisconsin 56.35% 29.51% 12.39% 5.35%
153.57 4. North Dakota 43.65% 20.08% 7.25% 2.70%
199.632 2. Ferris St 55.70% 29.49% 12.43% 5.38%
158.776 3. Colgate 44.30% 20.93% 7.71% 2.93%
East
352.088 1. Union 69.46% 45.44% 26.41% 15.61%
154.823 4. Vermont 30.54% 13.88% 5.35% 2.11%
197.646 2. Quinnipiac 53.26% 22.42% 9.93% 4.49%
173.439 3. Providence 46.74% 18.26% 7.52% 3.17%
Northeast
350.585 1. Boston College 76.88% 49.23% 28.98% 17.10%
105.457 4. Denver 23.12% 8.11% 2.50% 0.77%
159.696 2. Minnesota St 41.36% 15.71% 6.28% 2.52%
226.442 3. Mass.-Lowell 58.64% 26.94% 13.02% 6.32%