Tag Archives: uscho

Conference tournament weekend PWR outlook

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The following conclusions are based on an exhaustive search of all possible remaining outcomes (about 3,145,728 of them). Any percentages given are not weighted by likelihood or team strength, but instead represent the share of remaining scenarios in which that outcome occurs.

The following teams will make the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens this weekend:

  • #1 Minnesota
  • #2 Boston College (not playing)
  • #3 Union
  • #4 Ferris State
  • #5 Wisconsin
  • #6 Quinnipiac
  • #7 Mass.-Lowell
  • #8 Notre Dame

The following teams are extremely likely to make the NCAA tournament, but there are some outlier scenarios that could knock them out:

  • #9 Providence (in for sure with a win, selected in 97% of 0 win scenarios)
  • #10 St. Cloud St (not playing, selected in over 99% of scenarios)

The following teams have some chance of making it regardless of outcome:

  • #11 Michigan (selected in 21% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 96% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #12 Minnesota State (selected in 6% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 54% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #14 Vermont (not playing, selected in 69% of scenarios)
  • #15 Colgate (selected in 2% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 77% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #16 Cornell (selected in <1% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 85% of scenarios with 1 win)
  • #18 Northeastern (not playing, selected in 8% of scenarios)

The following teams need a win to make it:

  • #13 North Dakota (out with two losses, selected in 41% of scenarios with 1 win). UND is an outlier from the group above because the NCHC has a consolation game, so no wins actually means two losses instead of one.

The following teams need to win the conference tournament to get a bid:

  • #17 New Hampshire
  • #19 Western Michigan
  • #21 Ohio State
  • #24 Bowling Green
  • #25 Alaska Anchorage
  • #26 Denver
  • #31 Mercyhurst
  • #32 Miami
  • #37 Michigan State
  • #47 Robert Morris
  • #48 Canisius
  • #49 Niagara
  • #52 Penn State

Note – as of this writing there seems to be some discrepancy between the USCHO PWR calculator and CHN PWR calculator that I’m trying to work out. I feel pretty good about these numbers so wanted to get them out there rather than wait, but there’s a possibility of small revisions if new information comes to light.

Resources

PWR formula uncertainty resolved

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The previously dueling PWR implementations (see Uncertainty around PWR calculation) seem to have been resolved for now. This weekend, USCHO changed the formula it uses to calculate PWR so its tables now match those on CHN and SiouxSports. Previously, USCHO had weighted only the win% component while the others had weighted all components (win%, opponents win%, and opponents opponents win%).

As of right now, all three tables are identical:

Reading USCHO’s change as a sign that they received confirmation that their previous method was incorrect, this is great news for college hockey fans as it lifts the uncertainty that was previously hanging over the dueling implementations.

Uncertainty around PWR calculation

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Some uncertainty apparently still persists around the NCAA’s new tournament selection criteria for men’s hockey.

CollegeHockeyNews unveiled its first Pairwise Rankings for the season (CHN PWR), and their implementation is a bit different from USCHO’s (USCHO PWR).

The differences aren’t just discrepancies in the underlying game data (e.g. neutral ice vs. not), but instead seem to be modest differences in the way the game weights are applied. CHN acknowledged that:

“But while the committee was transparent in how the weightings and Bonus were supposed to be done in general, it didn’t completely explain how the numbers were supposed to be applied against the existing RPI. There are different ways to do it.

Therefore, different sites are showing slightly different results. And we’ve been fielding constant questions as to why ours doesn’t match what’s being shown elsewhere.”

This PWR on this site has mimicked what USCHO has been publishing, though I’ll certainly keep an eye on developments.

Hopefully people in the know can help everyone converge on a common understanding of the new criteria, or there could be some surprises come tournament time for the first time in many years!