Category Archives: Conference performance

NCAA tournament conference participation possibilities (2017 edition)

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Conference representation in NCAA tournament by share of possible scenarios
1 2 3 4 5
Atlantic Hockey 91% 9%
Big Ten 3% 46% 50%
ECAC 1% 77% 23%
Hockey East 1% 73% 26%
NCHC 4% 96%
WCHA 100%

Atlantic Hockey

Only the auto-qualifying winner of the conference tournament is in for sure, from #15 Air Force, #25 Canisius, #26 Robert Morris, and #34 Army. Air Force could also sneak in at-large even if they don’t win the conference tournament.

Big Ten

#5 Minnesota is in for sure, but the Big Ten is very unlikely to have the Gophers as their only representative. 5 other teams (#13 Penn State, #14 Ohio State, #18 Wisconsin, #36 Michigan, and #47 Michigan State) are also still vying for the conference tournament championship and its automatic bid. Of those, Penn State and Ohio State each stand a decent chance of making it at-large, particularly if they win a game or two.

ECAC

#3 Harvard and #7 Union are in for sure, but the ECAC is also quite likely to have additional representation. #9 Cornell and #20 Quinnipiac are also vying for the conference tournament championship and its automatic bid. Cornell stands a very good chance of getting an at-large bid.

Hockey East

#6 Boston University and #8 Mass.-Lowell are in for sure. Idle #12 Providence is also very likely (about 96% of remaining scenarios) to make the NCAA tournament at-large. #10 Notre Dame and #16 Boston College are also vying for the conference tournament championship and its automatic bid. Notre Dame stands a very good chance of getting an at-large bid, while Boston College stands a slim chance even if they don’t win the conference tournament.

NCHC

#1 Denver, #2 Minnesota-Duluth, and #4 Western Michigan are in for sure. The only other NCHC team vying for the conference tournament championship is #11 North Dakota, which is quite likely to make the NCAAs regardless of conference tournament outcome.

WCHA

The WCHA will only send the winner of its conference tournament, either #28 Michigan Tech or #37 Bowling Green.

February forecast follow-up

In February I published an article, How many teams will each conference put in the playoffs? (2017 edition) that used simulations to predict how many teams each conference would put in the top 14 of PWR (on the assumption that two conferences would go to autobids not otherwise in the top 14). That forecast has held up very well, confirming that February PWR is a pretty good predictor of March PWR and that KRACH-based simulations have some forecasting value.

How many teams will each conference put in the playoffs? (2017 edition)

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In the college hockey community, speculation about who is likely to make the NCAA tournament begins to reach a fevered pitch this time of year. That also leads to inevitable boasting from fans of those conferences having a strong season.

Looking at the top 14 (or 16) of PWR gives an interesting benchmark of performance to date, but this is a situation in which it can be interesting to try to determine the effects of the known remaining regular season schedule. By simulating the rest of the regular season (assuming teams will continue to perform as they have to date), we can see how each conference is likely to fare at the end of the regular season.

How many teams will each conference put in the playoffs?

As mentioned above, a good quick first check is how many teams each conference currently has in the top 14. (The cut line of 14 is based on a historical guess, but also fits quite well with the current situation of two conferences with autobids not having any teams in the top 14).

Teams currently in the top 14 of PWR
Atlantic Hockey 0
Big Ten 3
ECAC 3
Hockey East 3
NCHC 5
WCHA 0

But, by simulating the rest of the regular season (assuming teams will continue to perform as they have to date), we can see how the remaining schedule might affect those numbers.

Likelihood of each conference’s number of teams in top 14 PWR at the end of the regular season
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Atlantic Hockey 41% 59%
Big Ten 2% 35% 57% 6%
ECAC 9% 91%
Hockey East 2% 37% 48% 13% 1%
NCHC 21% 50% 29% 1%
WCHA 100%

Comparing the two tables, Atlantic Hockey and Hockey East are more likely to make a small gain before the end of the regular season than stay at their current level. That’s not surprising, as Atlantic Hockey and Hockey East teams currently hold PWR spots 15 and 16-18, respectively. The NCHC is more likely than not to lose a team, with St Cloud St and North Dakota sitting at #12 and #14, respectively. In fact, the NCHC seems about as likely to end with just 3 teams in the top 14 as its current 5. The Big Ten, with teams in PWR spots 11 and 13, is also reasonably likely to lose a team.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Tuesday of this week.

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

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NCAA tournament conference participation possibilities

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Conference recreation in NCAA tournament

Conference representation in NCAA tournament by share of possible scenarios
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Atlantic Hockey 100%
Big Ten 25% 75%
ECAC 2% 60% 38% 0%
Hockey East 2% 63% 35%
NCHC 49% 51%
WCHA 96% 4%

Big Ten

Michigan is in for sure. If the Big Ten tournament is won by anyone else, that will be a second representative for the Big Ten.

NCHC

North Dakota, St Cloud St, and Denver are in for sure. Minnesota-Duluth can make it at-large or by winning the conference tournament.

Atlantic Hockey

Only the Atlantic Hockey tournament winner will get a bid.

WCHA

Michigan Tech can make it at-large, and the conference tournament tournament winner will get a bid.

Hockey East

Boston College, Providence, Mass.-Lowell, and Boston University are in. Notre Dame and Northeastern each stand a chance at-large, and Northeastern is the only team that can win the conference tournament that isn’t already guaranteed a bid.

It’s possible for neither Notre Dame nor Northeastern to make it, limiting HE to four teams, but far more likely that they send five or even six.

ECAC

Quinnipiac is the only ECAC team guaranteed a spot. Yale, Harvard, and Cornell each stand a chance of an at-large bid. The tournament winner, if not Quinnipiac or Harvard, also gets a spot.

Though it’s possible for the ECAC to only send two teams, three or even four are more likely. Perhaps the biggest surprise of this article is that five is possible in about 1 in 1700 scenarios (each of Yale, Harvard, and Cornell must make it at-large despite the conference tournament being won by either St. Lawrence or Dartmouth).

January forecast follow-up

Back in January, I published a forecast of how many teams each conference was likely to put in the NCAA playoffs. That forecast has held up remarkably well, confirming that PWR in January is a pretty good predictor of PWR in March.

How many teams will each conference put in the playoffs? (2016 edition)

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This time of year always brings speculation about which teams are positioned for the NCAA tournament, which sometimes leads to discussions about each conference’s performance.

Looking at how many teams each conference has in the top 16 in PWR gives an interesting benchmark of performance to date. But, that occasionally raises questions of how the 2nd half schedules might reshape that field. Because we already know the rest of the regular season schedule, it’s pretty straightforward to simulate the rest of the regular season (assuming teams will continue to perform as they have to date) to see how each conference is likely to fare at the end of the regular season.

How many teams will each conference put in the playoffs?

Likelihood of each conference’s number of teams in the top 14 PWR at the end of the regular season
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atlantic Hockey 90% 10%
Big Ten 17% 70% 13%
ECAC 1% 19% 68% 12%
Hockey East 6% 51% 43%
NCHC 1% 44% 51% 5%
WCHA 96% 4%

Shaded cells represent the number of teams each conference currently has in the top 14. The Big Ten is most likely to make a gain (not surprisingly, since they hold positions 15 and 16), while Hockey East and the NCHC are  most likely to take a loss (holding positions 12 & 13, and 14, respectively).

How is each conference doing compared to its historical performance?

Looking back at 2014’s How many teams will each conference put in the playoffs?, ExileOnDaytonStreet on the USCHO forum had counted each conference’s current members’ average tournament appearances per year over the previous ten years:

Number of members that made that tournament per year
Atlantic Hockey 1.3
Big Ten 3
ECAC 2.3
Hockey East 4.1
NCHC 4.3
WCHA 1

Compared to their members’ historical performances–

  • Atlantic Hockey is on track, likely to just get its autobid.
  • The Big Ten continues to underperform, as it has since its inception. Of course, some of that can be attributed to its historically strong members now having to play each other instead of other teams.
  • ECAC is dramatically outperforming, with 4 at-large teams the most likely outcome based on performance to date.
  • Hockey East is right on track, likely getting 4-5 teams in at-large.
  • The NCHC is on-track to slightly behind, with 4 most likely but 3 much more likely than 5.
  • The WCHA, like Atlantic Hockey, is on track and likely to just get its autobid.

Keep in mind that the historical numbers are total tournament participants, whereas for forecasting purposes we just look at top 14 in PWR.

Is inter-conference play the key?

People sometimes speculate that inter-conference play is the key to a good PWR rating (though my own attempts to test that hypothesis have proven inconclusive at best).

Here is each conference’s current non-conference record (courtesy of CHN).

Inter-conference records (from CHN)
Atlantic Hockey .250
Big Ten .494
ECAC .606
Hockey East .545
NCHC .628
WCHA .458

The conferences likely to send the most teams to the tournament are indeed those with the best inter-conference records.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

How many teams will each conference put into the playoffs?

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Repeating a similar post that was inspired by message board chatter last year, I ran simulations of the remaining games and tracked how many teams each conference had in the top 14 at the end of the regular season (a reasonable guess as to the PWR rank that would guarantee an invitation to the NCAA tournament).

Let’s start with the current PWR.

Number of teams in top 14 of PWR right now
Atlantic Hockey 0
Big 10 1
ECAC 1
Hockey East 4
NCHC 5
WCHA 3

A far cry from last year when the post was inspired by inquiries about whether the NCHC was underperforming.

Now for the results of the simulations. Each chart shows the likelihoods of how many teams a conference will have in the top 14 at the end of the regular season.

aha

b10

ecac

he

nchc

wcha

Remember that the simulations assume each team will continue to perform similarly to how it has to date. So, it’s not surprising that each conference is predicted to finish with about the same number of teams in the top 14 as they have today.

More interesting is seeing how easy (or not) it is for conferences to move up or down. Atlantic Hockey is pretty unlikely to get an at-large bid. The Big Ten is more likely to fall to 0 at-large bids than climb to 2.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

How many teams will each conference put in the playoffs (and is the NCHC really underperforming?)

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There has been a lot of discussion about the NCHC seemingly having a down year based on its current poor performance in the Pairwise Rankings. A comment by Goon on a different blog asked whether Hockey East and ECAC might fall as additional conference play leads them to beat up on each other.

To help assess the NCHC’s performance and answer Goon’s question, I ran simulations of the remaining games and tracked how many teams each conference had in the top 14 at the end of the regular season (a reasonable guess as to the PWR rank that would guarantee an invitation to the NCAA tournament).

First, here is the current distribution of the top 14 PWR ranks by conference:

Number of teams in the top 14 in PWR right now
Atlantic Hockey 0
Big Ten 3
ECAC 3
Hockey East 5
NCHC 2
WCHA 1

Next, ExileOnDaytonStreet on the USCHO Forum calculated each conference’s current members average tournament appearances per year over the past ten years:

Number of members that made that tournament per year
Atlantic Hockey 1.3
Big Ten 3
ECAC 2.3
Hockey East 4.1
NCHC 4.3
WCHA 1

When comparing the numbers across the two tables, keep in mind that the first table only includes the top 14 while the second includes all tournament participants. To directly compare across the two tables, two auto bids that wouldn’t make the tournament at large need to be added to the first table.

Finally, here are the results of the simulations:

chart_1

With 0 teams currently in the top 14 and a historic average of 1.3 in the tournament, AH is about on par as it is almost certain to end with 0 teams in the top 14 so one participant in the tournament as an auto bid.

chart_2

With 3 teams currently in the top 14 and a historic average of 3 in the tournament, the Big Ten is about on par with 2-3 teams in the top 14 a likely finish.

chart_3

With 3 teams currently in the top 14 and an average of 2.3 in the tournament, the ECAC is outperforming with 3-4 teams in the top 14 a likely finish.

chart_4

With 5 teams currently in the top 14 and a historic average of 4.1 in the tournament, Hockey East is about on par to slightly outperforming with 4-5 teams in the top 14 a likely finish.

chart_5

With 2 teams currently in the top 14 and a historic average of 4.3 in the tournament, the NCHC is definitely underperforming with 2 teams in the top 14 a likely finish (though 1 or 3 distinctly possible).

chart_6

With 1 team currently in the top 14 and a historic average of 1 in the tournament, the WCHA is about on par with 1 team in the top 14 a likely finish (though 2 distinctly possible).

The projections are KRACH-weighted, so implicitly assume that teams will continue to perform as they have to date. That helps isolate the specific effects of the remaining schedule. The remaining schedule is not likely to push Hockey East or the ECAC down from their current levels, though individual teams’ performances certainly could.

The conclusion — even if its members outperform and its auto bid goes to a team that wouldn’t qualify at large, the NCHC seems quite likely to finish with a down year relative to its members past performances.