First look at 2018 tournament likelihoods

This week’s PWR by wins forecast is now available. See last week’s post, First 2018 PWR forecasts available, for an explanation of the forecasts and how to interpret the results.

For those who would rather just know the bottom line, this post will go into deeper detail interpreting the forecast table.

Is anyone safe yet?

No one is completely, mathematically, guaranteed a tournament appearance yet.

Neither #1 Notre Dame nor #2 Clarkson fell below #12 in any of the simulations (and thus would almost be guaranteed an at-large bid). But, note that in those same simulations neither team ever dipped down to 0-1 wins, so falling to the bubble is mathematically possible, but would take a highly improbable collapse.

Ok, then who’s likely to make the tournament?

#1 Notre Dame, #2 Clarkson, #3 St Cloud St, #4 Cornell, #5 Ohio St, and #6 Denver are all most likely to finish in the top 12 if they win at least half their remaining games.

Is anyone out?

Much like the at the top, very little is completely mathematically settled at this point. But, by looking at the near perfect seasons some lower ranked teams would require to get an at-large bid, you can guess at the low likelihood of that outcome.

From #35 Mercyhurst down need a near perfect remaining season to get in position for an at-large bid. Those teams include the following:

#35 Mercyhurst
#36 Merrimack
#37 Air Force
#38 Army
#39 New Hampshire
#40 Holy Cross
#41 Niagara
#42 Princeton
#43 Robert Morris
#44 Quinnipiac
#45 Bentley
#46 RIT

Getting an at-large bid, even with a perfect remainder of the season, seems very unlikely for #47 Ferris St and down.

#47 Ferris State
#48 Arizona State
#49 Dartmouth
#50 Connecticut
#51 American Internationl
#52 Brown
#53 Alaska
#54 Alabama-Huntsville
#55 Rensselaer
#56 St. Lawrence
#57 Sacred Heart
#58 Lake Superior
#59 Vermont
#60 Alaska Anchorage

What next?

I’ll keep updating the forecasts weekly, so you can always browse them yourself. I’ll also try to post interesting interpretations here, with increasing frequency as we near the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, you can explore more of the data yourself: