Category Archives: forecasts

Who’s a lock for the NCAA tournament?

Because everyone except the Big Ten is now in conference tournaments, any non-Big Ten team that loses two becomes idle, thus limiting its future movement. So, for the first time this season we can start to declare some (but not as many as you might guess) teams locks for the NCAA tournament.

While it only seems like the top two teams are safe, the top eight are all most likely to stay in the top ten if eliminated this weekend, thus well-positioned for an at-large bid.

Locks for the NCAA tournament

#1 North Dakota finishes at worst #3 after this weekend. It’s hard to imagine conference tournament results pushing them to #11 or below while idle.

#2 Mankato is most likely to fall just to #3 with two losses this weekend. It’s hard to imagine conference tournament results pushing them to #11 or below while idle.

Very likely to make NCAA tournament

#3 Minnesota-Duluth also seems pretty safe with a fall to #8 being the worst likely outcome of losing two. It would be possible for them to get pushed into the double digits while idle, which would have the remote chance of leaving them on the outside if accompanied by the additional unlikely event of a very large number of conference tournaments being won by teams not in position for an at-large bid.

#4 Miami through #8 Denver haver very similar outlooks. They’ll probably make the NCAA tournament even if eliminated this weekend, with a fall to #8-9 most likely. But a fall to #10 or even #11 this weekend is possible. Any of them could end up on the bubble with the additional bad luck of declining while idle plus a large number of conference tournaments being won by lower ranked teams.

#5 Michigan Tech

#6 Boston University

#7 Nebraska-Omaha

#8 Denver

Preview of teams still in play

The line between #8 and #9 is pretty clear, as #9 Providence would definitely be on the bubble if eliminated this weekend. The same pattern holds for teams #10 and below, which I’ll look at more in depth later this week.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

22 teams face elimination from at-large contention

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It’s an interesting weekend—with the three Eastern conferences (Atlantic Hockey, ECAC, and Hockey East) beginning best-of-3 conference tournament play-in series, while the three Western conferences have one or two weeks of their regular seasons left. In all three Eastern conferences, top teams are on bye this week; so, many teams in the PWR top 20 don’t play.

Team that need to win this weekend to stay alive

Each of the teams in play-in series this weekend need to win their series to have a chance at the NCAA tournament. The highest ranked team playing in a conference tournament this weekend is #19 Vermont, losing this weekend (with a record of 1-2 at best) is very unlikely to result in a significant upward move, and losing this weekend means no additional games before NCAA selection.

The teams that need to win to stay alive are:

Hockey East

#30 New Hampshire
#38 Connecticut
#31 Notre Dame
#45 Massachusetts
#20 Northeastern
#34 Merrimack
#19 Vermont
#43 Maine

ECAC

#41 Clarkson
#48 Rensselaer
#24 Dartmouth
#56 Princeton
#22 Harvard
#46 Brown
#33 Cornell
#35 Union

Atlantic Hockey

#52 Sacred Heart
#57 Army
#47 Holy Cross
#59 Niagara
#51 Air Force
#58 American International

Most of those teams would need to go on to win their conference tournaments to secure the autobid, though a few could keep the hopes of an at-large bid alive by advancing.

This weekend’s bubble watch (a look at #10-#23)

#10 Boston College – Idle this weekend, will most likely stay at #10.

#11 Minnesota – Remains one of the most interesting teams to watch week after week. With another split having resulted in the Gophers hanging on at #11, they are once again facing much more downside than upside. They most likely need a sweep to hang on at #11, another split would push them to the bubble, and a sweep would push them a bit below.

Regardless, the Big Ten has another weekend of conference play before beginning it’s tournament, so Minnesota will remain alive regardless of outcome.

#12 Quinnipiac – Idle this weekend, will most likely stay at #12 or fall to #13. The most likely move is that the Gophers could pass Quinnipiac in RPI, thus flipping the comparison and dropping QU one spot (even though Minnesota is ahead of Quinnipiac on the basis of taking more total comparisons, Quinnipiac currently has the head-to-head comparison).

#13 Yale – Has some of the most uncertainty and biggest opportunities for movement among the idle teams. #15 Michigan, #17 St Cloud St, and #14 Bowling Green all have opportunities to overtake Yale, while #1 Minnesota has the opportunity to fall below them.

#14 Bowling Green – Needs to win to hang onto it’s position, or perhaps even rise a bit if #11 Minnesota falters. If Bowling Green loses, they’ll be hoping #15 Michigan, #17 St Cloud St, #19 Vermont, and #22 Harvard lose, lest they overtake Bowling Green.

#15 Michigan – is the highest ranked team with significant upside potential this weekend. A sweep would likely put the Wolverines in the #11-12 range. A split should let them hang on in the neighborhood of #16, while getting swept would result in a fall to around #20.

Like Minnesota, Michigan will remain alive regardless of outcome.

#16 Mass.-Lowell – faces some decent upside potential, despite being idle. They will be watching the results from #14 Bowling Green, #15 Michigan, and #11 Minnesota, hoping to overtake them; while also hoping #17 St Cloud St doesn’t pull ahead with a sweep.

#17 St Cloud St – much like Michigan, SCSU has a big opportunity to gain ground over idle teams with a sweep, is likely to stay in the #17-18 range with a split, or fall to the high 20s if swept.

#18 Colgate – is a bit more likely to fall than climb. They could take the comparison from #15 Michigan, #14 Bowling Green, #19 Vermont, #17 St Cloud St, and possibly even #11 Minnesota. More likely, they could lose the comparisons to #22 Harvard and #23 Bemidji State.

#19 Vermont – has the chance to move up a little bit with a sweep, but would need some help. The comparisons Vermont is most likely to take would require losses from #31 Notre Dame (which surprisingly currently wins the comparison with Vermont on the basis of H2H and COP), #17 St Cloud State, #11 Minnesota, #15 Michigan, and #14 Bowling Green.

Vermont would then likely need at least one more win or a lot of luck to stand a shot an at-large bid. As mentioned above, losing this weekend would almost certainly put Vermont on the outside of the NCAA tournament.

#20 Northeastern – looks a lot like Vermont. They can climb a bit with two wins and if the teams ranked ahead of them that are playing this weekend stumble. The double-peaked “Win 2 curve is because it includes both possibilities (going 2-0 and going 2-1).

As mentioned above, if Northeastern does not advance, they’re very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at-large.

#21 St. Lawrence – idle this weekend, is unlikely to move up much. St. Lawrence’s chances for an at-large bid are harmed by the bye because the best they can do without securing the autobid is 3-1, a record that is not sure to push them into position for an at-large bid.

#22 Harvard – is still very much alive for an at-large bid. Advancing this weekend would be required, after which a 2-1 or 3-1 conference tournament record could propel the Crimson onto the bubble for an at-large bid.

#23 Bemidji St – is the lowest ranked team with a decent shot at an at-large bid. The story is quite similar to Harvard, requiring not only advancement this weekend but then also some success in the conference tournament.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Last weekend of February tournament cutlines

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As we enter the final full weekend of regular season play (there is some regular season play next weekend, and the Big Ten pushes into the weekend beyond that, but over half the remaining regular season games occur this weekend), I want to remind readers that these forecasts will be through the end of the regular season only.

Conference tournaments don’t provide a lot of downside risk, because they tend to be single elimination (the notable exception being that it’s possible to go 0-2 in conference play in conferences with play-in series). However, there can be significant upside opportunity because teams in conferences with play-in series can put together something like a 4-1 run (a perfect record in conference play would earn the autobid, thus rendering the final PWR ranking unimportant).

Because of those games remaining to be played, I loosely define ending the regular season ranked 13-17 as “on the bubble”. Teams in those rankings can secure an autobid with a decent conference tournament performance.

#7 Denver is the highest ranked team with a decent chance of falling to the bubble if they slump.

#10 Minnesota and below actually need to do pretty well (e.g. above .500) to avoid falling to the bubble (note this chart was made before last night’s win).

Former top-ranked #18 Harvard and below need good performances to climb onto the bubble.

Though it’s unlikely that #23 Robert Morris will climb into contention, #24 Western Michigan, #25 Bemidji State, and #26 Penn State are long shots if they win out.

#27 Dartmouth and below are unlikely to make the NCAA tournament without significant success in their conference tournaments.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Big PWR game of the week

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The big PWR game of the week is #14 Yale vs. #10 Quinnipiac. They only play one game vs. each other, but then another each vs. #56 Princeton and #48 Brown, respectively.

A single win this weekend for either most likely results in a small decline in ranking. The interesting outcome is if the loser of the head-to-head also loses their other game, which could result in falling of at-large bid position in the PWR.

The runner-up big PWR game is #23 Western Michigan vs. #2 North Dakota. North Dakota isn’t moving much, even if they get swept; it doesn’t seem possible to overtake idle #1 Minnesota State this weekend. However, Western Michigan could jump just below the bubble with a sweep.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Tournament cutlines and weekend PWR outlook

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Welcome new visitors. You might want to start with my introductory post, Hello world, to see what this blog is about. It may not be for everyone.

Review of last week’s cutlines

I don’t report on the cutlines (the rankings above which teams are locks for the tournament and below which teams are unable to make the tournament at-large) weekly, because their movements are usually pretty intuitive. If I reported that a team needs to win 5 out 8 and it subsequently wins 2 games, it then needs to win 3 out of 6; the PWR curves usually look about same, just the curve labels change from “5 more wins” to “3 more wins” and so forth. To illustrate that, let’s quickly review a few of the teams that had charts in last week’s article (you may want to open its charts side-by-side for comparison if you can).

By winning 2 games, #4 Minnesota-Duluth made the old “win 0” curve drop off and now just needs 1 or 2 more wins to stay on or above the bubble.

#5 Bowling Green also won 2 games, so now just needs about 4 wins to go into conference tournaments on the bubble.

Further down the chart, #14 Minnesota shifted all of its curves with a pair of wins — the Gophers now need about 6 or 7 wins out of 10 (consistent with last week’s 8 or 9 out of 12) to climb onto the bubble before conference tournaments.

#30 Bemidji State, which I said last week could only afford about 2 losses, has racked up 2 losses. They would pretty much need to win out for a shot at an at-large bid.

Interesting potential movements this weekend

First, is this the week #1 Minnesota State falls out of first? It only seems possible if they get swept (which KRACH gives about a 2.6% chance of happening), and even then someone nipping at their heels (North Dakota seems the only possibility) has to do well. You can’t see the “Win 1” curve because it’s in exactly the same place as “Win 2″—100% at 1.

The matchup of the weekend is definitely #12 Michigan vs #14 Minnesota. Neither has much upside potential, but if either sweeps the other will plummet up to 10 spots.

#15 Mass.-Lowell needs a sweep to hang on, but pair of losses could send them into the twenties.

Remember when #16 Harvard was ranked 1st and I said that a “not particularly likely” bad 2nd half could still push them out? Two more losses this weekend could push them into the twenties.

#22 St Cloud State, mentioned last week as the lowest ranked team with a good chance of climbing into contention, can make up some ground this weekend. An unlikely sweep of #5 Minnesota-Duluth could catapult them up onto the bubble, while even a split could result in a climb of a position or two.

#26 Western Michigan is also poised for huge jump with an also unlikely sweep over #4 Nebraska-Omaha.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Tournament cutlines, revisited

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It’s been about a month since my First look at the tournament cutlines. Since then, things have firmed up just a little bit, so it’s worth revisiting.

First a couple of things to keep in mind while looking at the pictures: 1) there are still about 250 games remaining in the regular season alone, so we should fully expect some of the “1% likelihood” events to happen; and 2) teams have wildly different numbers of games remaining in their regular season, from 6 to 12, so their potentials to make big moves will also differ accordingly.

Is anyone a lock?

Mathematically, still no. But the top four teams would need to win just one or two of their remaining games to fall out:
#1 Minnesota State
#2 North Dakota
#3 Boston University
#4 Nebraska-Omaha

#5 Minnesota-Duluth and #6 Bowling Green could each fall out with a particularly bad performance—winning about 1/3 of their remaining games.

Who controls their own destiny?

Teams that should make it if they continue to do we’ll are from #7 Michigan Tech down to about #18 Merrimack, which approaches the bubble with a bit over .500 in its remaining games. Those include:
#8 Miami
#9 Denver
#10 Providence
#11 Harvard
#12 Boston College
#13 Mass.-Lowell
#14 Michigan
#15 Quinnipiac
#16 Vermont
#17 Yale

#19 Minnesota approaches the bubble by winning about 2/3 of its remaining regular season games.

#20 Colgate needs to win about 3/4 to climb to the bubble. Teams down through about #23, Western Michigan, have a similar outlook.

That includes:
#21 St. Lawrence
#22 Penn State
#23 Western Michigan

#24 Robert Morris has a tough, but mathematically possible, road to the bubble.

Down through #31 Dartmouth have a similar outlook. That group includes:
#24 Robert Morris
#26 Cornell
#27 Northeastern
#29 Northern Michigan
#30 Union

Note that I left out #25 St Cloud St and #28 Bemidji St, each of which stand a slightly better (though still difficult) chance than their neighbors at climbing to the bubble.

Who needs to win their conference tournament?

From #32 Alaska down are unlikely to make the bubble at-large, even if they win out. That group includes
#33 Clarkson
#34 Michigan State
#35 Connecticut
#36 Ohio State
#37 Notre Dame
#38 Bentley
#39 Ferris St
#40 Mercyhurst
#41 Canisius
#42 Rensselaer
#43 Maine
#44 New Hampshire
#45 Alabama-Huntsville
#46 Massachusetts
#47 Colorado College
#48 RIT
#49 Alaska-Anchorage
#50 Holy Cross
#51 Lake Superior
#52 Air Force
#53 Sacred Heart
#54 Brown
#55 Wisconsin
#56 Princeton
#57 Army
#58 American Int’l
#59 Niagara

How are last month’s predictions holding up?

Finally, let’s do a results check on last month’s predictions. The two movements that seem most surprising looking back are Harvard and Bemidji State.

I noted that no one was a lock, and that even #1 Harvard could fall to the bubble if they won only about half of their remaining games. Since then, Harvard has gone 2-6 and has fallen to #11. The current forecast matches the original pretty well—that Harvard would now need to win about 5 of its remaining 9 games to end the regular season on the bubble.

I noted that Bemidji State was the cutoff for being unlikely to advance without a major run. A 5-2-1 run since then has helped propel Bemidji State from #37 to #28. The forecasts now show that they stand a slightly better chance of making the tournament than seemed possible a month ago, but that they’d still need a run of winning at least 8 if not 9 of their remaining 10 to hit the bubble.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

How many teams will each conference put into the playoffs?

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Repeating a similar post that was inspired by message board chatter last year, I ran simulations of the remaining games and tracked how many teams each conference had in the top 14 at the end of the regular season (a reasonable guess as to the PWR rank that would guarantee an invitation to the NCAA tournament).

Let’s start with the current PWR.

Number of teams in top 14 of PWR right now
Atlantic Hockey	0
Big 10	1
ECAC	1
Hockey East	4
NCHC	5
WCHA	3

A far cry from last year when the post was inspired by inquiries about whether the NCHC was underperforming.

Now for the results of the simulations. Each chart shows the likelihoods of how many teams a conference will have in the top 14 at the end of the regular season.

Remember that the simulations assume each team will continue to perform similarly to how it has to date. So, it’s not surprising that each conference is predicted to finish with about the same number of teams in the top 14 as they have today.

More interesting is seeing how easy (or not) it is for conferences to move up or down. Atlantic Hockey is pretty unlikely to get an at-large bid. The Big Ten is more likely to fall to 0 at-large bids than climb to 2.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

A first look at the at-large tournament cutlines

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A couple of weeks ago in When to start looking at PWR (revisited), I noted that the PWR as of early January does give us some idea as to which teams might make the tournament at large. I noted that any top team can still fall out of contention, though that it takes a notable collapse for the top few. More interestingly, I observed that its unusual (though definitely possible) for a team rated much lower than 20 to climb into an at-large bid.

To see how those general historical observations will hold up this season, I ran simulations for the rest of the regular season and generated some statistics about where teams are likely to finish based on their performance over their remaining games. (Specific details about the simulations are available in the methodology section at the end).

Before we jump into the data, I want to warn that starting simulations this far out makes it pretty likely that some of the 1% events will happen. Remember that PWR cares how each team’s opponents perform, so the analysis for each team implicitly assumes that all other teams will continue to perform as they have to date. As teams’ fortunes change in the 2nd half of the season, it will affect not only their own PWR but also their opponents’. With about 450 games remaining, we should see a lot of outcomes we didn’t expect.

Is anyone a lock for the tournament?

Not completely. Even #1 Harvard could slip to the bubble if it wins only 6-7 of its remaining 14 games. That’s not particularly likely (the odd shape of the “win 6” curve and complete absence of the “win 4” curve are because those scenarios occurred so infrequently in the simulations).

Who can still make the tournament at-large with a good regular season performance?

From #1 Harvard (as described above) down to about #27 Northern Michigan have realistic scenarios for at-large bids. It would take a good run for Northern Michigan to climb into an at-large bid; they would need at least 12 wins in their remaining 16 games to stand a good chance.

From #28 Notre Dame to #37 Bemidji State, it appears possible to make the tournament at-large, but only with an amazing run (e.g. one or two losses at the most). These teams aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it’s a decent guess that being below #28 today means success in a conference tournament will be required for an NCAA tournament bid.

#38 New Hampshire and below look like the only path to the NCAA tournament is through the conference tournaments.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Saturday morning update

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This is a big article will in four parts:

Changes from yesterday
A new summary of the overall outlook
Specific scenarios that determine which of the at-large candidates make it
A table of all remaining PWR possibilities

As we near the end, I want to remind everyone that there’s a noticeably higher than other years chance that this information is wrong. The NCAA changed its selection process this year. While USCHO, CHN, and I have attempted to faithfully implement it and came up with identical PWR rankings, it wouldn’t be shocking if something different came out of the committee than what’s in our final PWR tables.

Changes from yesterday

Colgate is a lock
Cornell is out
Northeastern is out

Overall outlook

Minnesota
Boston College
Union
Ferris St
Wisconsin
Quinnipiac
Mass.-Lowell
Notre Dame
St Cloud (added Thursday)
Colgate (added Friday)

In the running at large

Providence (about 94%)
Michigan (about 17%)
Mankato (can also get auto bid, about 75% with loss)
North Dakota (about 28% with win)
Vermont (about 93%)

Can make it with a conference championship

New Hampshire
Ohio St
Denver (playing Miami)
Miami (playing Denver)
Robert Morris (playing Canisius)
Canisius (playing Robert Morris)

Scenarios of interest to at-large teams

North Dakota

UND makes it in about 28% of the scenarios in which it wins. UND seems to need:

UND and Mass.-Lowell win and either (Wisconsin wins) or (Canisius, Ferris St, and Miami win)

The Mass.-Lowell, Wisconsin, and Ferris St wins prevent the cut line from moving by giving auto bids to teams already above the cut. In the case of UML + Ferris, UND needs a little PWR help from the other two wins.

Minnesota State

Minnesota State is in with an auto bid with a win.

Minnesota State also makes it in about 75% of scenarios in which it loses. Those scenarios are a bit complex.

Mankato misses if:
Ferris St, Ohio State, New Hampshire win and (North Dakota, or Canisius, or Denver win)

Ferris St, Ohio State, Mass.-Lowell, North Dakota, Canisius, and Miami win

Michigan

Michigan makes it in about 17% of scenarios.

Michigan is in if:
Wisconsin and Mass.-Lowell win and UND either ties or loses.

Wisconsin and Mass.-Lowell wins prevent the cut-line from moving, and a UND tie should keep them below Michigan in the PWR.

Providence

Providence makes it in about 94% of scenarios.

Providence only misses if:
New Hampshire, Mankato, Colgate, and Ohio State win.

Vermont

Vermont makes it in about 93% of scenarios.

Vermont only misses if:
Ohio State, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, Ferris St, Robert Morris, and Miami win

Ohio State, New Hampshire, Mankato, and Union win

Both scenarios require Ohio State and New Hampshire to move the cutline; the other games are about keeping other teams from taking all the available at-large bids.

Remaining PWR possibilities

Team

PWR Possibilities

Overall

By number of wins

UMN

#1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Boston College

#2 91.1%
#3 8.9%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Union

#2 8.9%
#3 91.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#2		17.7%
#3	100.0%	82.3%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%

Ferris State

#4 74.0%
#5 22.4%
#6 0.0%
#7 3.6%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#4	47.9%	100.0%
#5	44.8%
#6
#7	7.3%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%

#4 25.0%
#5 50.0%
#6 25.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#4		50.0%
#5	50.0%	50.0%
#6	50.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%

Quinnipiac

#6 75.0%
#7 25.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Mass.-Lowell

#4 1.0%
#5 27.6%
#6 0.0%
#7 71.4%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#4		2.1%
#5		55.2%
#6
#7	100.0%	42.7%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%

Notre Dame

#8 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Providence

#10 12.5%
#11 38.5%
#12 36.5%
#13 12.5%
Tournament invites: 93.8%

n/a

SCSU

#9 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Michigan

#14 64.6%
#15 34.4%
#16 1.0%
Tournament invites: 16.7%

n/a

Mankato

#10 50.0%
#11 0.0%
#12 2.6%
#13 45.3%
#14 2.1%
Tournament invites: 87.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#10		100.0%
#11
#12	5.2%
#13	90.6%
#14	4.2%
Tournament invites:	75.0%	100.0%

UND

#13 2.1%
#14 31.3%
#15 4.2%
#16 18.2%
#17 18.8%
#18 17.2%
#19 8.3%
Tournament invites: 9.4%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#13		6.3%
#14		93.8%
#15	6.3%
#16	27.3%
#17	28.1%
#18	25.8%
#19	12.5%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	28.1%

Vermont

#11 11.5%
#12 49.5%
#13 39.1%
Tournament invites: 92.7%

n/a

Colgate

#10 37.5%
#11 50.0%
#12 11.5%
#13 1.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#10	25.0%	50.0%
#11	50.0%	50.0%
#12	22.9%
#13	2.1%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%

Cornell

#16 8.3%
#17 34.4%
#18 41.1%
#19 16.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

New Hampshire

#14 2.1%
#15 10.9%
#16 12.0%
#17 13.5%
#18 36.5%
#19 25.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#14		4.2%
#15		21.9%
#16		24.0%
#17		27.1%
#18	50.0%	22.9%
#19	50.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	100.0%

Northeastern

#15 36.5%
#16 40.1%
#17 18.2%
#18 5.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Western Michigan

#21 66.7%
#22 33.3%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#21	50.0%	100.0%
#22	50.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%

Ohio State

#15 14.1%
#16 20.3%
#17 15.1%
#18 0.0%
#19 27.6%
#20 22.9%
Tournament invites: 50.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#15		28.1%
#16		40.6%
#17		30.2%
#18
#19	54.2%	1.0%
#20	45.8%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	100.0%

Bowling Green

#24 14.1%
#25 8.3%
#26 77.6%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

#27 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Denver

#23 50.0%
#24 0.0%
#25 50.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#23		100.0%
#24
#25	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	100.0%

Mercyhurst

#32 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Miami

#29 27.6%
#30 22.4%
#31 50.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#29		55.2%
#30		44.8%
#31	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	100.0%

Michigan State

#37 18.8%
#38 81.3%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Robert Morris

#44 50.0%
#45 0.0%
#46 0.0%
#47 0.0%
#48 50.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#44		100.0%
#45
#46
#47
#48	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	100.0%

Canisius

#44 7.3%
#45 21.9%
#46 14.6%
#47 6.3%
#48 50.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1
#44		14.6%
#45		43.8%
#46		29.2%
#47		12.5%
#48	100.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	100.0%

Niagara

#49 21.9%
#50 78.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Penn State

#51 49.5%
#52 50.5%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Friday morning update

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With the first two Big Ten games down, there are only minor changes to the overall tournament outlook.

St Cloud St now appears to be a lock for an at-large bid.

Michigan has taken on the expected “0 win” scenario from previous columns (about a 22% chance of making the tournament at-large).

Each of the bubble teams — Mankato, UND, Vermont, Colgate, and Cornell — improved their one win at-large chances by about 10% (idle Vermont’s overall chances increased by about 10%).