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Final regular season Pairwise forecast

About these forecasts

I’m again going to look just one week ahead because of the mix of games, though we’re starting to get a pretty good idea where the break lines are of teams that are locks for the NCAA tournament and those that can only make it by winning their conference tournaments. There are quite a few teams in the middle still capable of winning their way to an at-large bid.

If you didn’t read Feb. 26’s article, I’d urge you to check out the part that explains what I mean by a particular outcome being “likely”.

Teams that could fall to the bubble if swept

Every conference except the Big Ten is a best-of-three playoff round, meaning that any non-Big Ten team that loses two games this weekend won’t play any more games before the NCAA tournament selection. While teams’ PWR rankings can move a bit when idle, they’re pretty unlikely to make big moves. So, to determine teams’ worst case outcomes if swept we look at their likely PWR rankings following such an outcome this weekend and assume they’ll go into NCAA tournament selection with PWRs in the same neighborhoods.

#7 Quinnipiac is the highest ranked team with a noticeable chance of falling to the bubble (about a 16% chance of falling to #13 or lower if swept this weekend).

For #8 Mass.-Lowell, that jumps to about 29% chance of falling to #13 or lower if swept this weekend. For #9 Notre Dame, about 39% chance of falling to #13 or lower if swept.

Note that it’s also possible for a team that emerges victorious this weekend to end up with a lower PWR ranking going into NCAA selection due to a subsequent loss in a conference tournament.

Teams that could fall out of contention if swept

#10 North Dakota is the highest ranked team with a significant chance of falling out of contention if swept this weekend, with a ranking of #15-#18 most likely following such a result. It may prove to be possible to climb a couple spots while idle or even make the tournament from #15, but it’s not most likely.

#11 Providence and #12 Vermont face similar outlooks.

Teams that probably need to win this round

#13 Cornell is the highest ranked team with very little chance of staying in contention if swept this weekend, with a ranking of #18-#20 most likely if swept or #16-#19 most likely with a single win. Winning the round would keep Cornell in contention, most likely landing between #10-#15 (the broad range is attributable to two wins being achievable with either zero or one losses).

#14 Michigan will fall to the bottom of the bubble if swept this weekend, but has not yet entered its conference tournament so would get one more chance to make up ground next weekend.

#15 Northeastern is likely to fall out of contention if swept, or (unlike Cornell) move above the bubble with two wins.

#16 Colgate, #17 Mankato, and #18 Yale also fall out of contention if swept. Colgate and Minnesota State climb just to the bottom of the bubble with two wins (#13-#17 and #13-#16 most likely, respectively), while Yale is more likely to climb above the bubble with two wins (#10-#14 most likely).

Teams that can barely make the bubble with two wins

#19 Minnesota Duluth has only a 1% chance of making #13 or above with two wins this weekend, or a 15% chance of making #15 or above. #20 New Hampshire and #21 Western Michigan face similarly daunting outlooks.

Remember that after winning this weekend, three more wins would get any of these teams a conference tournament victory and auto-bid, so the chances for an at-large bid are really only interesting if you assume the conference tournament is going to end in a loss. It’s possible for one of these teams to get into position for an at-large bid with a sweep this weekend and then one or two wins followed by a loss, but not most likely.

#22 Maine fares slightly better, looking at about a 6% chance of landing at #13 or higher with two wins or a 31% chance of making #15 or above.

Teams that probably need to win their conference tournaments

#23 Ohio State can’t quite get to the bubble (no higher than #17 likely) even with two wins this weekend. Following such an outcome with two wins and a loss at the Big Ten conference tournament could be enough to get OSU onto the bubble, but it would take some luck.

#24 Clarkson and below aren’t even likely to break #20 with two wins this weekend. It’s hard to imagine one or two wins and a loss being enough to push any of them into place for an at-large bid.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Transition week rankings outlook

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It’s an interesting week as one conference has two remaining weekends of regular season contests, two enter their final weekends, two begin best of three rounds in their conference tournaments, and one has a single elimination round.

Review of last week’s results

To keep me honest, we’ll first have a very quick review of last week’s forecasts. I’ll focus on the extraordinary results rather than recap the entire column.

#9 Northeastern was designated the highest ranked team that could fall to the bubble (#13-#16 most likely) if swept. After two losses, they fell to #15.

#15 Notre Dame was designated a bubble team that could climb off the bubble (#10-#13 most likely) with a win. The Fighting Irish pulled off the upset and climbed to #10.

#16 Providence was also designated a team that could climb off the bubble (most likely #10-#13) with a sweep. The Friars swept Maine and climbed to #11.

Of teams just below the bubble, only #19 Minnesota State pulled off the required sweep and climbed to #17—the lower end of the likely #15-#17 from the forecast.

About these forecasts

I’m again going to look just one week out because of the unusual mix of games.

If you didn’t read last week’s forecasts, I’d urge you to check out the part that explains what I mean by a particular outcome being “likely”.

Who could fall to the bubble this weekend

#9 remains the break point of being likely to fall to the bubble with a bad performance. This week it’s North Dakota (#14-#16 most likely if swept).

#10 Notre Dame has a pretty broad spread as to how far it could fall with a loss in its single game this weekend, with #12-#16 most likely. Note that the Hockey East tournament has begun and ND is in a single elimination game, so a loss would place them firmly on the bubble and out of control of their destiny.

With no games this weekend, #11 Providence can’t quite fall to the bubble.

#12 Michigan is facing down a cliff, likely to fall onto the bubble with a split (#12-#17 likely) or below the bubble if swept (#17-#19 most likely).

Quiet weekend on the bubble

#13 Cornell, #15 Northeastern, and #16 Colgate don’t play this weekend, but could still move a little in either direction.

#14 Vermont climbs a bit higher (#12-#14 most likely) with a win in its single game this weekend, or falls off (#16-#18 most likely) with a loss. Vermont is also in a single elimination game in the HE tournament, so this game weighs heavily on their fate.

Few teams can climb onto the bubble

A sweep would likely land #17 Minnesota State between #12-#15.

#18 Minnesota-Duluth can barely climb onto the bubble, with #14-#16 most likely with a sweep.

#22 Ohio State is an honorable mention, with a likely climb to #16-#19 with an unlikely sweep of #1 Minnesota.

Teams facing possible elimination this weekend

A few teams playing in conference tournaments this weekend only have hope for an at-large bid with a few wins:

#19 Yale is most likely to climb to #17-#19 with two wins this weekend

A win in its single elimination game this weekend doesn’t move #21 Maine much, with a #20-#22 range the most likely outcome. But hope would remain for an at large bid.

#24 Clarkson wouldn’t budge much even with two wins this weekend, likely to #22-#25. That’s not very promising.

Teams playing this weekend that not only need to win this weekend, but probably also their conference tournaments, to see the NCAA tournament:

#31 St Lawrence
#36 Brown
#37 Harvard
#44 Boston University
#45 Dartmouth
#46 Massachusetts
#47 Merrimack
#49 Robert Morris
#52 Niagara
#51 Holy Cross
#53 Canisius
#54 RIT
#55 Sacred Heart
#56 Princeton
#57 American International
#59 Army

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Weekend’s Pairwise Ranking outlook

2 Replies

Last week I wrote an update on the break lines for NCAA tournament chances. Because it targeted the end of the regular season, its predictions still hold. So, this week I’ll take a shorter term look at what’s likely to happen this weekend.

What the forecasts really mean (there is some math)

These forecasts are not yet to the precision of completely mathematically eliminating outcomes. The number of possible outcomes is still so large that it wouldn’t be as useful to (and I can’t!) go into the detail of what’s mathematically possible and not until the conference tournaments.

Instead, I’ll refer to outcomes with at least a 10% probability as “likely”, and outcomes with a 1% probability as something that “could happen”. That suggests that one time out of ten, you’re going to see a “could happen” outcome instead of a “likely” one. It also suggests that one time out of a hundred you’re going to see an outcome outside what I even declared “could happen”.

The probabilities of possible outcomes do have a bell-shaped distribution, as you’ll see in the graphs, so when I say “a range of #10-#13 is likely” it’s usually most likely (over a 50% chance) of being in the middle of the range, #11-#12 in this case.

Who could fall to the bubble

#7 Quinnipiac and #8 Mass.-Lowell seem relatively safe, neither being likely to drop below #13 even if swept (though drops as low as #14 could happen for each).

#9 Northeastern is the highest ranked team with an obvious chance to fall to the bubble, with a drop to #13-#16 likely if swept.

#10 UND (#12-#14 likely and #16 could happen), #11 Cornell (#17-#19 likely and #21 could happen), and #12 Vermont (#16-#19 likely and #20 could happen) face similar downsides to the bubble if swept.

What will the bubble teams do?

Now it gets interesting. While the bubble teams can all fall off the bubble if swept or shore up their position with a sweep, those on the upper part of the bubble seem to face more downside while those on the lower part of the bubble seem to face more upside.

#13 Colgate is likely to fall to #18-#20 if swept (as low as #21 could happen), rise to #10-#13 with a sweep (as high as #9 could happen), or stay about the same or fall slightly with a split.

Similarly, #14 Michigan is likely to fall to #18-#20 if swept (as low as #22 could happen), rise to #10-#12 with a sweep (as high as #9 could happen), or stay about the same or fall slightly with a split.

#15 Notre Dame only plays one game this weekend. A win would result in a likely climb to #10-#13 (as high as #9 could happen), while a loss would result in a likely fall to #15-#17 (as low as #18 could happen).

#16 Providence would likely climb to #10-#13 with a sweep (as high as #9 could happen), but is also likely to rise modestly to #13-#15 with a split.

Teams that could climb onto the bubble

#17 Maine would likely climb to #11-#14 with a sweep (as high as #10 could happen).

#18 Yale would likely climb to #13-#16 with a sweep (as high as #12 could happen). But, for Yale a split is likely to result in a modest drop to #18-#20.

#19 Minnesota State and #20 New Hampshire can just reach the bottom of the bubble, with rankings ranging from #15-#17 and #16-#18 respectively likely with a sweep (#13 and #14 could happen for each respectively).

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Update on each team’s tournament chances

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As the regular season pushes into its final month, I’ll do more frequent updates on who’s a lock for an at-large bid and who’s out of the running.

Calculation details

The way I judge that is by forecasting each team’s Pairwise Ranking, and determining how likely the team is to finish in the top 12.

Readers may recall previous controversy about the PWR rankings, which was apparently resolved last weekend when USCHO adopted the formula CHN has been using. This site continues to use that same formula as the basis for its predictions.

End of regular season outlook

Last week I stated that #8 Mass.-Lowell was the last lock, which remains true this week. Their chance of falling to #13 or below by the end of the regular season has fallen to about 2.5%. Just below them, #9 Northeastern is the highest ranked team with a serious chance of dropping out, with about a 24% chance of falling to #13 or lower.

The dividing line for controlling their own destiny appears to around #19 at first glance, in that #19 Mankato can clearly make it while #20 New Hampshire is in trouble.

But, at this level and point in the season, the different number of games remaining is starting to matter. #21 Yale and #22 Denver both stand noticeably better chances than Yale.

Finally, the “remote mathematical chance of making it if they close out the season perfectly” line has climbed to about #27 Alaska Anchorage. #28 Nebraska-Omaha and below need conference tournament success to make the NCAAs.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Pairwise Ranking outlook for this weekend

Review of last week’s forecasts

Last week I highlighted the teams poised to make the biggest moves with extraordinary performances (both positive and negative).

Of Yale, Clarkson, Michigan, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, and Michigan State, only New Hampshire delivered the necessary extraordinary performance. As predicted, the then #22 Wildcats experienced a significant move up, landing at #14 going into this weekend.

Poised to climb

A few teams in the 20s face particularly lopsided upside opportunities this weekend.

#23 Ohio State is most likely to jump to 15-18 with a sweep (though as high as 13 is plausible)
#26 Brown is most likely to jump to 17-18 with two wins (though as high as 14 is plausible)
#20 Yale is most likely to jump to 12-14 with two wins (though as high as 11 is plausible)

Poised to fall

Just inside the bubble seems to be a bad place to be, as a few teams in the teens face particularly lopsided downside opportunities this weekend.

#13 Minnesota-Duluth is most likely to fall to 19-20 if swept (though as low as 23 is plausible)
#14 New Hampshire is most likely to fall to 21-22 if swept (though as low as 25 is plausible)
#15 North Dakota is most likely to fall to 22-23 if swept (though as low as 26 is plausible)
#16 Notre Dame is most likely to fall to 23-24 if swept (though as low as 27 is plausible)

Could go either way

The #11 Wisconsin Badgers face the biggest combined upside/downside. Though their most likely outcomes are climbing up to 7-8 with a sweep or falling to 18-20 if swept, as high as #4 or as low as #23 after this weekend are plausible.

Methodology

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Pairwise Ranking outlook for this weekend

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Poised to climb

#44 Michigan State (8-12-3) probably isn’t on anyone’s radar, but if they pull off an unlikely sweep at Minnesota, the Spartans can jump as many as 17 spots to the high 20s. That demonstrates the power of the quality win bonus (QWB) which would contribute .05 RPI points, or about a 3 spot jump, for two wins over the #1 (though perhaps then #2) team at home.

Lest Spartans fans get too excited, the rest of Michigan State’s schedule isn’t so kind, so it would really take winning out the season to complete the climb into the teens.

The only teams outside the top 20 with a good shot (over 1%) of climbing into the top 14 this weekend are:

#21 Western Michigan (could climb as high as #11)
#22 New Hampshire (could climb as high as #13)

Again, each would be helped in their ascent by the QWB.

Poised to fall

Highly ranked teams with significant downside potential include:

#10 Michigan (could fall as low as #21)
#14 Minnesota-Duluth (could fall as low as #24)

Bubble teams of interest

Finally, #16 Clarkson and #18 Yale are having their moments in the sun. Each could climb into place for an at-large bid, or fall deep into the 20s.

Methodology

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Pairwise Rankings (PWR) and the NCAA hockey tournament outlook

A note on the 2014 PWR

The PWR was changed this year in a few significant ways:

RPI now includes a quality win bonus for beating top teams
RPI now weights home losses/road wins higher than home wins/road losses for the win percentage criterion
PWR no longer includes the Teams Under Consideration criterion

By shifting the credit for strong wins from a PWR criterion (TUC) to the RPI (QWB), the other PWR criteria are deemphasized. With only three criteria in PWR and RPI as the tie-breaker, PWR will only deviate from RPI when head-to-head results come into play.

Teams that are almost a lock

A few teams’ performances have already earned them strong enough RPIs that they’re almost locks for at-large bids to the NCAA tournament. That level seems to be above about a 57 RPI index.

#1 Minnesota (61.2 RPI) currently wins all of its PWR comparisons. Even if the Gophers were to win only 4 of their remaining games, they would still end the regular season in the top 10.

#2 Boston College (59.97 RPI) currently wins 57 of 58 PWR comparisons. Winning 4 of its remaining games would result in a top 10 regular season finish, while winning only 2 would still leave the Eagles in a likely position for an at-large bid.

#3 Quinnipiac (57.63 RPI) currently wins 56 of 58 PWR comparisons. The Bobcats need to win 4 of their remaining 8 games to be certain to be in position for an at-large bid at the end of the regular season, though could still be in contention with just 2 wins.

Teams that are almost out of contention

On the other end of the RPI rankings, some teams have performed poorly enough to date that they have very little chance of making the tournament at-large. That line seems to be below about a 49 RPI index.

#36 Alaska (49.39 RPI) currently wins 24 of 58 PWR comparisons. Even if Alaska won out, they would likely be just on the outside of an at-large bid at the end of the regular season.

#39 Bentley (49.1 RPI) currently wins 19 of 58 PWR comparisons. Winning out would not provide Bentley enough of a boost to make the tournament at-large by the end of the regular season.

The outlook is similarly grim for the 21 teams below Bentley in RPI:

Bemidji State
Michigan State
Michigan Tech
Massachusetts
Merrimack
Harvard
Connecticut
Boston University
Canisius
Dartmouth
RIT
Princeton
Colorado College
Penn State
Holy Cross
Robert Morris
American Int’l
Niagara
Sacred Heart
Alabama-Huntsville
Army

Methodology

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)