Tag Archives: forecast

Tonight’s headlines – PWR effects of Hockey East games

The bulk of games are tonight, so there will plenty of PWR tables, simulations, blogs, and tweets about PWR implications of the outcomes. I’ll try to give you a preview of some of those in advance.

These claims are a little less certain than my usual articles because they involve a fair amount of human tweaking, tallying, and writing. So, I may have introduced some error, so I’ll use the words “appear to be” a lot.

Like the ECAC, Hockey East has quite a few teams near the bubble. However, the outcomes of their games tonight have far less impact on other teams’ scenarios than do the ECAC teams’.

Quinnipiac appears to be able to secure an at-large bid with just one additional win if Boston University and Mass.-Lowell win tonight.
Harvard appears to move into the position of needing at least one win to still have a chance at an at-large bid if New Hampshire and Vermont win tonight.

Plus the effects on the playing Hockey East teams themselves, previously discussed:

New Hampshire appears to need to win the conference tournament to advance
Mass.-Lowell appears to need at least one win to advance, so losing tonight would eliminate them
Vermont appears to need at least one win to advance, so losing tonight would eliminate them

Tonight’s headlines – PWR effects of ECAC outcomes

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The bulk of games are tonight, so there will plenty of PWR tables, simulations, blogs, and tweets about PWR implications of the outcomes. I’ll try to give you a preview of some of those in advance.

I’m starting with the effects of ECAC outcomes because the large number of bubble teams in the ECAC makes those among the most interesting.

Minnesota appears not to be able to make it at-large with 0 wins if Harvard wins today.
Boston College appears to be guaranteed an at-large bid if Harvard and St. Lawrence win today.
Mass.-Lowell appears not to be able to make it at-large (though could still be alive in their own tournament) if Harvard wins today.
Yale appears not to be able to make the tournament if Quinnipiac and Colgate win today.
Vermont appears not to be able to make it at-large (though could still be alive in their own tournament) if Harvard and Colgate win today.

Plus the effects on the playing ECAC teams themselves, previously discussed:

St. Lawrence appears to need to win its conference tournament to get a bid
Colgate appears to need at least one win to make the tournament, so would be eliminated with a loss tonight

Conference participation possibilities for NCAA tournament

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Even though Boston University is Hockey East’s only current lock for the NCAA tournament, they’re sure to get at least two entrants. That suggests that the only scenarios that knock Boston College out involve at least one Hockey East team other than BU making it (Mass.-Lowell, Vermont, Providence, or New Hampshire).

Hockey East is actually most likely to send 3-4, with 5 still possible.

The Big Ten is only guaranteed to place its conference tournament champion in the NCAA tournament. But, if Minnesota does well but fails to win the championship, the Big Ten could end up sending both the Gophers and the champ.

The NCHC is guaranteed to send five teams (Denver, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, and Omaha), but is most likely to send a sixth (adding St. Cloud St).

The ECAC is only guaranteed to send its conference tournament champion, though its likely to send a second from Colgate, Harvard, Quinnipiac, or Yale. Harvard, Colgate, and Yale are all reasonably long shots, so not all can make it resulting in a maximum of three participants from the ECAC.

Atlantic Hockey will only send its tournament champion to the NCAA tournament.

The WCHA is guaranteed to send two teams, Michigan Tech and Minnesota State. They’re quite likely to send three and possibly even four from those two plus Bowling Green and Ferris State.

A look at who can make the tournament (with less math)

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The big data dump is in the article below, so here’s a less numeric list of who’s still in position to make the NCAA hockey tournament.

These guys seem in

#1 North Dakota
#2 Minnesota State-Mankato
#3 Denver
#4 Boston University
#5 Michigan Tech
#6 Minnesota Duluth
#7 Miami
#8 Nebraska-Omaha

Can make it at-large

#9 Boston College (idle, >99% of scenarios)
#10 Quinnipiac (70% if they lose, 95% if they win)
#11 St Cloud St (20% if they lose, >99% if they win)
#12 Bowling Green (50% if they lose, 95% if they win)
#13 Minnesota (5% if they lose, 35% if they win)
#14 Providence (idle, 75% of scenarios)
#15 Harvard (<1% if they lose, 10% if they win) #16 Colgate (out if they lose?, 5% if they win) #17 Mass.-Lowell (out if they lose, 3% if they win) #18 Yale (idle, 4% of scenarios) #19 Vermont (out of if they lose, 10% if they win)

Can make it by winning their conference tournament

#20 St. Lawrence
#21 Michigan
#22 Robert Morris
#27 New Hampshire
#30 Penn State
#31 Michigan State
#34 Ferris State
#37 Ohio State
#38 Canisius
#39 Mercyhurst
#40 RIT
#55 Wisconsin

How the “can make it at-large” teams make it

There are 16 slots. 6 go to the winners of the conference tournaments. The next 10 are given to the top PWR teams that haven’t yet been selected (by winning their conference tournament).

Those teams that are still playing can make it by winning their conference tournament and getting the autobid.

If they fall short of that goal, the bubble teams want:

To win (if still playing) to maximize their own PWR
Other bubble teams to lose to increase PWR
Conference tournaments to be won by top teams so lower PWR ranks make it at-large

The winner of Atlantic Hockey will be a team that would not get an at-large bid, taking away one spot. That leaves at most 15 spots for top PWR teams.

The winner of the NCHC will be a team that would get an at-large bid, guaranteeing an extra PWR spot. At least the top 11 PWR teams will make the tournament.

Here’s who else bubble teams should cheer for to win their tournaments to maximize spots:

Big Ten – Minnesota
WCHA – Michigan Tech, Mankato, Bowling Green
Hockey East – Boston University (maybe Vermont, Mass.-Lowell)
ECAC – Quinnipiac (maybe Harvard, Colgate, St. Lawrence)

A look at all the remaining tournament possibilities

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I ran all 3,145,728 remaining possible outcomes, and here’s a first pass on the percentage of remaining scenarios each team makes the NCAA tournament:

Team

PWR Possibilities

Overall

By number of wins

UND

#1 76.7%
#2 23.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#1	61.2%	75.2%	100.0%
#2	38.8%	24.8%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Mankato

#1 23.3%
#2 76.7%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#1	1.0%	16.5%	74.7%
#2	99.0%	83.5%	25.3%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Denver

#3 43.6%
#4 21.2%
#5 12.3%
#6 5.1%
#7 17.8%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3	2.2%	42.8%	100.0%
#4	12.0%	41.3%
#5	19.4%	14.0%
#6	13.0%	1.9%
#7	53.3%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Boston University

#3 20.2%
#4 27.3%
#5 23.6%
#6 21.7%
#7 7.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3	1.2%	11.7%	66.5%
#4	11.3%	55.7%	31.0%
#5	32.2%	27.7%	2.4%
#6	41.0%	4.7%
#7	14.3%	0.2%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

MTech

#3 15.8%
#4 16.1%
#5 15.8%
#6 31.0%
#7 21.4%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3		4.0%	59.2%
#4	0.1%	28.6%	35.5%
#5	5.3%	47.2%	5.3%
#6	52.5%	18.8%
#7	42.1%	1.4%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

UMD

#3 3.6%
#4 22.3%
#5 36.3%
#6 27.9%
#7 10.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Miami

#3 16.9%
#4 13.1%
#5 12.0%
#6 14.3%
#7 41.8%
#8 1.7%
#9 0.2%
#10 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#3		3.6%	61.7%
#4		11.3%	33.5%
#5		26.0%	4.8%
#6		34.2%
#7	94.4%	24.9%
#8	5.1%
#9	0.6%
#10	0.0%
Tournament invites:	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Nebraska-Omaha

#8 53.0%
#9 36.2%
#10 9.7%
#11 1.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

n/a

Boston College

#8 0.0%
#9 8.1%
#10 24.9%
#11 31.8%
#12 23.7%
#13 9.5%
#14 1.8%
#15 0.1%
Tournament invites: 99.2%

n/a

Quinnipiac

#7 0.1%
#8 0.3%
#9 16.1%
#10 12.6%
#11 11.1%
#12 14.8%
#13 20.1%
#14 16.2%
#15 7.1%
#16 1.6%
#17 0.1%
Tournament invites: 82.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#7			0.2%
#8			1.2%
#9		0.0%	64.4%
#10	0.0%	19.8%	30.6%
#11	1.6%	37.7%	3.4%
#12	16.3%	26.2%	0.1%
#13	34.7%	10.9%
#14	30.2%	4.5%
#15	13.8%	0.9%
#16	3.2%
#17	0.2%
Tournament invites:	67.5%	95.0%	100.0%

SCSU

#7 1.8%
#8 21.0%
#9 7.4%
#10 10.1%
#11 13.0%
#12 10.4%
#13 6.7%
#14 6.2%
#15 6.2%
#16 5.0%
#17 5.2%
#18 6.0%
#19 0.9%
#20 0.1%
#21 0.0%
Tournament invites: 73.1%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#7			7.3%
#8			84.0%
#9		12.7%	8.6%
#10	0.0%	24.0%	0.2%
#11	0.4%	30.8%
#12	3.0%	22.6%
#13	9.7%	8.4%
#14	16.7%	1.4%
#15	18.4%	0.1%
#16	15.0%
#17	15.6%
#18	18.0%
#19	2.8%
#20	0.4%
#21	0.0%
Tournament invites:	19.5%	99.8%	100.0%

Bowling Green

#7 0.0%
#8 20.9%
#9 6.2%
#10 5.3%
#11 8.7%
#12 11.0%
#13 13.2%
#14 15.7%
#15 12.1%
#16 5.5%
#17 1.3%
Tournament invites: 72.6%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#7			0.1%
#8			83.5%
#9		10.9%	14.0%
#10	0.3%	18.6%	2.2%
#11	2.7%	29.3%	0.2%
#12	9.2%	25.5%
#13	20.3%	12.4%
#14	29.9%	3.0%
#15	24.1%	0.3%
#16	11.1%
#17	2.5%
Tournament invites:	46.5%	97.4%	100.0%

UMN

#8 1.0%
#9 9.0%
#10 10.8%
#11 4.6%
#12 2.9%
#13 5.0%
#14 12.9%
#15 21.4%
#16 17.6%
#17 10.8%
#18 4.2%
Tournament invites: 36.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#8			3.9%
#9			35.9%
#10		0.4%	42.7%
#11		2.6%	15.7%
#12		9.6%	1.8%
#13	1.2%	17.6%	0.0%
#14	12.3%	26.8%
#15	30.5%	24.9%
#16	28.4%	13.5%
#17	19.2%	4.7%
#18	8.4%
Tournament invites:	4.2%	35.7%	100.0%

Providence

#10 1.4%
#11 8.7%
#12 21.6%
#13 30.0%
#14 24.7%
#15 11.3%
#16 2.3%
#17 0.0%
Tournament invites: 74.6%

n/a

Harvard

#8 2.1%
#9 9.1%
#10 8.9%
#11 3.8%
#12 1.1%
#13 1.4%
#14 5.1%
#15 10.7%
#16 16.7%
#17 19.2%
#18 17.7%
#19 3.9%
#20 0.3%
#21 0.0%
Tournament invites: 28.1%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#8			8.6%
#9			36.5%
#10			35.4%
#11		0.0%	15.1%
#12		0.6%	3.8%
#13	0.0%	5.1%	0.6%
#14	0.1%	20.1%	0.0%
#15	1.8%	39.0%
#16	18.2%	30.3%
#17	36.0%	4.8%
#18	35.4%
#19	7.8%
#20	0.6%
#21	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.4%	11.6%	100.0%

Colgate

#9 5.1%
#10 10.1%
#11 6.9%
#12 2.2%
#13 0.6%
#14 1.4%
#15 5.6%
#16 7.9%
#17 7.6%
#18 27.8%
#19 15.2%
#20 8.5%
#21 1.0%
Tournament invites: 26.3%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#9			20.3%
#10			40.6%
#11			27.7%
#12			8.9%
#13		0.2%	2.2%
#14		5.3%	0.3%
#15	0.1%	22.4%	0.0%
#16	0.7%	30.2%
#17	3.6%	23.0%
#18	46.1%	18.9%
#19	30.4%	0.0%
#20	17.1%
#21	2.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	5.4%	100.0%

Mass.-Lowell

#9 1.9%
#10 2.6%
#11 5.8%
#12 7.1%
#13 5.1%
#14 2.7%
#15 5.4%
#16 4.2%
#17 5.6%
#18 10.2%
#19 32.6%
#20 15.2%
#21 1.5%
Tournament invites: 25.7%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#9			7.7%
#10			10.5%
#11			23.3%
#12			28.3%
#13		0.2%	20.2%
#14		2.4%	8.2%
#15		20.0%	1.6%
#16	0.0%	16.8%	0.1%
#17	0.5%	21.6%
#18	2.2%	36.4%
#19	64.0%	2.5%
#20	30.3%	0.0%
#21	3.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	2.9%	100.0%

Yale

#11 0.0%
#12 0.4%
#13 1.2%
#14 3.5%
#15 9.2%
#16 22.5%
#17 37.0%
#18 19.8%
#19 4.7%
#20 1.4%
#21 0.2%
Tournament invites: 4.1%

n/a

Vermont

#9 0.6%
#10 3.7%
#11 4.5%
#12 4.9%
#13 7.1%
#14 9.7%
#15 8.5%
#16 7.0%
#17 6.1%
#18 5.6%
#19 25.1%
#20 15.3%
#21 1.8%
#22 0.2%
#23 0.0%
Tournament invites: 27.7%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#9			2.4%
#10			14.6%
#11		0.0%	18.0%
#12		0.2%	19.6%
#13		5.4%	22.9%
#14		22.4%	16.2%
#15	0.1%	28.4%	5.6%
#16	1.3%	24.7%	0.7%
#17	4.2%	15.8%
#18	11.1%	0.5%
#19	48.8%	2.6%
#20	30.5%
#21	3.7%
#22	0.3%
#23	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	10.8%	100.0%

St. Lawrence

#13 0.0%
#14 0.2%
#15 2.0%
#16 8.9%
#17 5.9%
#18 6.4%
#19 2.0%
#20 41.9%
#21 23.8%
#22 7.3%
#23 1.6%
#24 0.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#13			0.0%
#14			0.7%
#15			8.2%
#16			35.7%
#17			23.5%
#18			25.5%
#19		2.6%	5.5%
#20	46.9%	72.8%	0.8%
#21	36.8%	21.7%	0.0%
#22	13.1%	2.9%
#23	3.1%	0.0%
#24	0.1%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Michigan

#14 0.0%
#15 0.2%
#16 0.8%
#17 1.2%
#18 2.3%
#19 9.8%
#20 5.4%
#21 30.8%
#22 25.7%
#23 12.2%
#24 7.2%
#25 3.5%
#26 0.8%
#27 0.0%
Tournament invites: 12.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2	Win 3
#14				0.2%
#15				1.8%
#16				6.4%
#17				9.9%
#18				18.6%
#19		7.2%	15.2%	48.9%
#20	0.4%	1.8%	25.6%	12.3%
#21	18.7%	62.0%	45.9%	1.8%
#22	34.6%	27.3%	12.4%
#23	23.2%	1.7%	0.8%
#24	14.5%
#25	6.9%
#26	1.6%
#27	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Robert Morris

#19 5.5%
#20 8.3%
#21 19.5%
#22 18.0%
#23 15.7%
#24 16.8%
#25 11.8%
#26 3.7%
#27 0.6%
#28 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#19		0.0%	22.1%
#20	0.0%	0.4%	32.9%
#21	0.5%	37.5%	39.7%
#22	8.6%	49.4%	5.4%
#23	25.1%	12.8%
#24	33.7%
#25	23.6%
#26	7.4%
#27	1.1%
#28	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Alaska

#20 0.1%
#21 3.2%
#22 15.0%
#23 31.6%
#24 32.9%
#25 15.0%
#26 2.2%
#27 0.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Northeastern

#19 0.0%
#20 3.1%
#21 7.1%
#22 20.0%
#23 24.2%
#24 18.3%
#25 14.2%
#26 9.2%
#27 3.7%
#28 0.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Dartmouth

#21 0.1%
#22 2.1%
#23 9.6%
#24 18.0%
#25 39.5%
#26 23.3%
#27 7.2%
#28 0.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

Western Michigan

#20 0.0%
#21 0.0%
#22 0.5%
#23 2.3%
#24 6.2%
#25 14.4%
#26 53.4%
#27 21.4%
#28 1.7%
Tournament invites: 0.0%

n/a

New Hampshire

#19 0.1%
#20 0.4%
#21 10.8%
#22 11.1%
#23 2.6%
#24 0.0%
#25 0.0%
#26 2.8%
#27 19.3%
#28 10.3%
#29 26.7%
#30 15.3%
#31 0.6%
#32 0.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#19			0.4%
#20			1.7%
#21			43.3%
#22			44.3%
#23			10.4%
#24
#25		0.1%
#26		11.2%
#27	0.1%	77.1%
#28	14.8%	11.6%
#29	53.4%
#30	30.6%
#31	1.2%
#32	0.0%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Penn State

#22 0.2%
#23 0.3%
#24 0.5%
#25 1.6%
#26 4.4%
#27 4.0%
#28 5.2%
#29 6.4%
#30 13.2%
#31 15.6%
#32 21.7%
#33 22.9%
#34 4.1%
Tournament invites: 12.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2	Win 3
#22				1.3%
#23				2.2%
#24				3.7%
#25				12.9%
#26				35.3%
#27			0.4%	31.4%
#28		2.9%	22.6%	13.2%
#29		3.2%	44.3%
#30		38.7%	28.4%
#31	10.2%	39.8%	4.2%
#32	36.4%	14.1%
#33	45.2%	1.2%
#34	8.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Michigan State

#26 0.2%
#27 7.9%
#28 12.3%
#29 5.8%
#30 6.6%
#31 14.8%
#32 18.5%
#33 22.2%
#34 11.6%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#26			0.9%
#27			31.6%
#28			49.4%
#29		5.3%	18.1%
#30	0.0%	26.4%
#31	11.2%	36.7%
#32	23.1%	27.7%
#33	42.4%	3.9%
#34	23.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ferris State

#28 0.7%
#29 14.0%
#30 9.2%
#31 3.9%
#32 8.3%
#33 9.8%
#34 48.3%
#35 5.8%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#28			2.6%
#29			56.1%
#30			36.9%
#31		11.2%	4.4%
#32		33.2%	0.0%
#33		39.2%
#34	88.4%	16.4%
#35	11.6%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Ohio State

#33 0.0%
#34 5.8%
#35 6.7%
#36 22.9%
#37 23.4%
#38 41.1%
#39 0.1%
Tournament invites: 12.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2	Win 3
#33				0.0%
#34				46.3%
#35			0.0%	53.7%
#36		41.9%	99.4%
#37	24.9%	43.3%	0.6%
#38	74.9%	14.8%	0.0%
#39	0.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Canisius

#35 0.1%
#36 16.4%
#37 14.8%
#38 18.8%
#39 37.5%
#40 12.4%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#35			0.3%
#36			65.5%
#37	0.0%	25.0%	34.2%
#38	25.1%	25.0%
#39	49.9%	50.0%
#40	24.9%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Mercyhurst

#36 5.8%
#37 10.4%
#38 8.8%
#39 53.2%
#40 20.4%
#41 1.4%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#36			23.4%
#37			41.6%
#38			35.0%
#39	56.6%	99.8%	0.0%
#40	40.7%	0.2%
#41	2.8%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

RIT

#37 12.5%
#38 12.5%
#39 9.1%
#40 14.6%
#41 1.2%
#42 0.0%
#43 5.7%
#44 44.3%
Tournament invites: 25.0%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
#37			50.0%
#38			50.0%
#39		36.4%
#40		58.6%
#41		4.9%
#42
#43	11.3%	0.1%
#44	88.7%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

#53 6.7%
#54 5.9%
#55 87.4%
Tournament invites: 12.5%

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2	Win 3
#53				53.8%
#54			0.8%	46.2%
#55	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%
Tournament invites:	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

A look at the bubble teams

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If you haven’t read them yet, you might want to start with my articles from earlier this week, Who’s a lock for the NCAA tournament? and Who might fall out of contention for the NCAA tournament? Having visited those two extremes, this article goes into a little more depth on the teams in between.

Background on how PWR matters for tournament selection

Because we get lots of new readers during the tournament season, here’s some background information that my posts generally assume you know:

The PWR rankings are not a poll or computer model, but are instead an implementation of the same process the NCAA uses to select its tournament participants. They have correctly predicted the NCAA tournament participants for a decade or two.
Each conference gets to send one tournament winner to the NCAA tournament. So, we don’t need to look at the PWR of a team that wins its conference tournament.
The remaining 10 slots are given to top teams as ranked by the process implemented in PWR. So, PWR ranks 1-10 are in for sure; but, for 11-16 to make it requires some of the autobids to have gone to teams ranked above them (e.g. if an autobid goes to the team ranked #3, then an extra slot is open for the team ranked #11, and so on).

Because of that structure, we think of teams that are going to finish in the 12-15 range as “on the bubble”. Teams’ prospects are dependent not only on their final ranking, but also on how many lower ranked teams wins conference tournaments. Bubble teams’ chances for an at-large bid increase as slots are freed up by more conference tournaments being won by teams that would have made the NCAA tournament at-large.

A look at the bubble teams

#9 Providence would be on the bubble if eliminated from their conference tournament this weekend. They’d then need a bit of luck to make the NCAA tournament, needing to either climb a bit while idle and/or have a lot of conference tournaments won by top ranked teams.

If Providence wins this weekend, they’ll be in pretty good shape. A semifinal loss would probably push them back down to the high end of the bubble, while a win would nearly lock up a bid.

#10 Boston College is in a very similar position to Providence. They’d be on the bubble if eliminated this weekend and would be watching the other conference tournaments carefully.

If they advance this weekend, they’ll be in pretty good shape — favored, though probably not mathematically secure, for an NCAA bid.

#11 Bowling Green would likely be pushed down below the bubble if eliminated this weekend. It would take a lot of luck to climb back onto the bubble while idle and have most of the conference tournaments won by top ranked teams.

If Bowling Green advances, they would still probably need a semifinal win to stay on the bubble.

#12 Quinnipiac has a chance of staying on the bubble if eliminated this week, but would have to watch future tournament results carefully.

If they advance, another win would probably be needed to stay atop the bubble.

#13 Yale is likely to be pushed just below the bubble if eliminated this weekend, but would stand a slim chance of climbing onto it dependent on other tournament results.

Advancing this weekend would position them well, but not secure a spot in the NCAAs. With an additional win, Yale would be favored to secure a spot.

#14 Minnesota hasn’t entered conference tournament play yet, so does not face elimination. Getting swept this weekend would put them in a bad spot for an at-large bid, but would also probably force them to play in the Big Ten quarterfinals. The extra game would give them the chance to go 2-1 in the conference tournament and possibly get back onto the bubble.

#15 Mass.-Lowell is likely to end well below the bubble if eliminated this weekend. It would take a very unlikely confluence of events for them to move into an at-large bid from that position.

Advancing puts them in a precarious spot on the bubble, such that a subsequent loss would probably push them off.

#16 St Cloud St is currently at 11-12-1 so needs one more win than loss in its remaining games to meet the .500 requirement for consideration for the NCAA tournament. So, the Huskies won’t be considered if eliminated this weekend. If they advance (either 2-1 or 2-0), they’ll be in a decent bubble position, but probably need at least one more win.

#17 Harvard will be below the bubble if eliminated this weekend and it’s very unlikely they could slide into position for an at-large bid while idle.

Advancing would put them right on the bubble, such that they’d probably want another win to stay there.

#18 Colgate is out if eliminated this weekend. Advancing puts them on the low end of the bubble, such that a subsequent loss would probably push them off. Best to advance and win one more.

#19 Vermont is very likely out if eliminated this weekend. Advancing would put them right on the low end of the bubble, such that another win would probably be required to make the tournament at-large.

#20 Michigan is not yet in its conference tournament so is not facing elimination this weekend. Two losses would likely put an at-large bid out of reach, while two wins would bring the bubble within sight. A first round bye, though, would reduce their opportunities to climb in the PWR.

#21 Bemidji State is out if eliminated this weekend. It’s possible, though not particularly likely, that Bemidji State could position itself for an at-large bid by advancing to the conference tournament final and losing.

#22 St. Lawrence is almost identical to Bemidji State. They’re out if they lose this weekend. It’s possible, though not particularly likely, that St. Lawrence could position itself for an at-large bid by advancing to the conference tournament final and losing.

#23 Dartmouth is out if they fail to advance. Dartmouth is better positioned than the teams above it to get an at-large bid by winning a few games then losing the conference final. Winning the conference tournament would be a safer bet.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Who might fall out of contention for NCAA tournament?

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Yesterday I looked at Who’s a lock for the NCAA tournament?, now let’s take a look at who can fall out of contention for the NCAA tournament this weekend.

First, only teams that have the potential to be eliminated from their conference tournaments this weekend are considered able to fall out of contention.

I then call any team that can be eliminated and still finish higher than #20 still alive for contention, even though the lower ranked of those are very unlikely to make up the necessary ground in PWR. For a more realistic look at who’s a lock, refer to the previous article.

Updates:
10:57ET 2015/03/11 — St Cloud St moved from still alive to eliminated because even though they could still potentially be in PWR position, they would not have a .500 record so would be ineligible. Hat tip to @GOHUSKIESWOOOOO for pointing out that oversight.

Still alive even if they lose this weekend (at-large bid would still be possible)

#1 North Dakota
#2 Mankato
#3 Minnesota Duluth
#4 Miami
#5 Michigan Tech
#6 Boston University
#7 Nebraska Omaha
#8 Denver
#9 Providence
#10 Boston College
#11 Bowling Green
#12 Quinnipiac
#13 Yale
#15 Mass.-Lowell
#17 Harvard
#19 Vermont

Having already covered the top teams in “Who’s a lock”, tomorrow I’ll dive deeper into the bubble teams.

Still alive no matter what happens this weekend (not yet in conference tournament)

#14 Minnesota
#20 Michigan
#28 Penn State
#32 Michigan State
#37 Ohio State
#55 Wisconsin

Will not make the NCAA tournament if eliminated this weekend

#16 St Cloud St (would not have .500 record)
#18 Colgate
#21 Bemidji St
#22 St Lawrence
#23 Dartmouth
#26 Robert Morris
#27 Western Michigan
#29 Merrimack
#30 New Hampshire
#31 Union
#33 Notre Dame
#34 Northern Michigan
#35 Ferris St
#38 Bentley
#39 Canisius
#42 Mercyhurst
#44 RIT
#46 Rensselaer
#47 Air Force
#49 Sacred Heart
#50 Colorado College
#53 Alabama Huntsville
#54 Lake State
#58 Niagara

Have no more opportunities to make NCAA tournament

#24 Alaska
#25 Northeastern
#36 Cornell
#40 Maine
#41 Connecticut
#43 Clarkson
#45 Massachusetts
#48 Brown
#51 Holy Cross
#52 Alaska Anchorage
#56 Princeton
#57 Army
#59 American International

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Who’s a lock for the NCAA tournament?

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Because everyone except the Big Ten is now in conference tournaments, any non-Big Ten team that loses two becomes idle, thus limiting its future movement. So, for the first time this season we can start to declare some (but not as many as you might guess) teams locks for the NCAA tournament.

While it only seems like the top two teams are safe, the top eight are all most likely to stay in the top ten if eliminated this weekend, thus well-positioned for an at-large bid.

Locks for the NCAA tournament

#1 North Dakota finishes at worst #3 after this weekend. It’s hard to imagine conference tournament results pushing them to #11 or below while idle.

#2 Mankato is most likely to fall just to #3 with two losses this weekend. It’s hard to imagine conference tournament results pushing them to #11 or below while idle.

Very likely to make NCAA tournament

#3 Minnesota-Duluth also seems pretty safe with a fall to #8 being the worst likely outcome of losing two. It would be possible for them to get pushed into the double digits while idle, which would have the remote chance of leaving them on the outside if accompanied by the additional unlikely event of a very large number of conference tournaments being won by teams not in position for an at-large bid.

#4 Miami through #8 Denver haver very similar outlooks. They’ll probably make the NCAA tournament even if eliminated this weekend, with a fall to #8-9 most likely. But a fall to #10 or even #11 this weekend is possible. Any of them could end up on the bubble with the additional bad luck of declining while idle plus a large number of conference tournaments being won by lower ranked teams.

#5 Michigan Tech

#6 Boston University

#7 Nebraska-Omaha

#8 Denver

Preview of teams still in play

The line between #8 and #9 is pretty clear, as #9 Providence would definitely be on the bubble if eliminated this weekend. The same pattern holds for teams #10 and below, which I’ll look at more in depth later this week.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

22 teams face elimination from at-large contention

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It’s an interesting weekend—with the three Eastern conferences (Atlantic Hockey, ECAC, and Hockey East) beginning best-of-3 conference tournament play-in series, while the three Western conferences have one or two weeks of their regular seasons left. In all three Eastern conferences, top teams are on bye this week; so, many teams in the PWR top 20 don’t play.

Team that need to win this weekend to stay alive

Each of the teams in play-in series this weekend need to win their series to have a chance at the NCAA tournament. The highest ranked team playing in a conference tournament this weekend is #19 Vermont, losing this weekend (with a record of 1-2 at best) is very unlikely to result in a significant upward move, and losing this weekend means no additional games before NCAA selection.

The teams that need to win to stay alive are:

Hockey East

#30 New Hampshire
#38 Connecticut
#31 Notre Dame
#45 Massachusetts
#20 Northeastern
#34 Merrimack
#19 Vermont
#43 Maine

ECAC

#41 Clarkson
#48 Rensselaer
#24 Dartmouth
#56 Princeton
#22 Harvard
#46 Brown
#33 Cornell
#35 Union

Atlantic Hockey

#52 Sacred Heart
#57 Army
#47 Holy Cross
#59 Niagara
#51 Air Force
#58 American International

Most of those teams would need to go on to win their conference tournaments to secure the autobid, though a few could keep the hopes of an at-large bid alive by advancing.

This weekend’s bubble watch (a look at #10-#23)

#10 Boston College – Idle this weekend, will most likely stay at #10.

#11 Minnesota – Remains one of the most interesting teams to watch week after week. With another split having resulted in the Gophers hanging on at #11, they are once again facing much more downside than upside. They most likely need a sweep to hang on at #11, another split would push them to the bubble, and a sweep would push them a bit below.

Regardless, the Big Ten has another weekend of conference play before beginning it’s tournament, so Minnesota will remain alive regardless of outcome.

#12 Quinnipiac – Idle this weekend, will most likely stay at #12 or fall to #13. The most likely move is that the Gophers could pass Quinnipiac in RPI, thus flipping the comparison and dropping QU one spot (even though Minnesota is ahead of Quinnipiac on the basis of taking more total comparisons, Quinnipiac currently has the head-to-head comparison).

#13 Yale – Has some of the most uncertainty and biggest opportunities for movement among the idle teams. #15 Michigan, #17 St Cloud St, and #14 Bowling Green all have opportunities to overtake Yale, while #1 Minnesota has the opportunity to fall below them.

#14 Bowling Green – Needs to win to hang onto it’s position, or perhaps even rise a bit if #11 Minnesota falters. If Bowling Green loses, they’ll be hoping #15 Michigan, #17 St Cloud St, #19 Vermont, and #22 Harvard lose, lest they overtake Bowling Green.

#15 Michigan – is the highest ranked team with significant upside potential this weekend. A sweep would likely put the Wolverines in the #11-12 range. A split should let them hang on in the neighborhood of #16, while getting swept would result in a fall to around #20.

Like Minnesota, Michigan will remain alive regardless of outcome.

#16 Mass.-Lowell – faces some decent upside potential, despite being idle. They will be watching the results from #14 Bowling Green, #15 Michigan, and #11 Minnesota, hoping to overtake them; while also hoping #17 St Cloud St doesn’t pull ahead with a sweep.

#17 St Cloud St – much like Michigan, SCSU has a big opportunity to gain ground over idle teams with a sweep, is likely to stay in the #17-18 range with a split, or fall to the high 20s if swept.

#18 Colgate – is a bit more likely to fall than climb. They could take the comparison from #15 Michigan, #14 Bowling Green, #19 Vermont, #17 St Cloud St, and possibly even #11 Minnesota. More likely, they could lose the comparisons to #22 Harvard and #23 Bemidji State.

#19 Vermont – has the chance to move up a little bit with a sweep, but would need some help. The comparisons Vermont is most likely to take would require losses from #31 Notre Dame (which surprisingly currently wins the comparison with Vermont on the basis of H2H and COP), #17 St Cloud State, #11 Minnesota, #15 Michigan, and #14 Bowling Green.

Vermont would then likely need at least one more win or a lot of luck to stand a shot an at-large bid. As mentioned above, losing this weekend would almost certainly put Vermont on the outside of the NCAA tournament.

#20 Northeastern – looks a lot like Vermont. They can climb a bit with two wins and if the teams ranked ahead of them that are playing this weekend stumble. The double-peaked “Win 2 curve is because it includes both possibilities (going 2-0 and going 2-1).

As mentioned above, if Northeastern does not advance, they’re very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at-large.

#21 St. Lawrence – idle this weekend, is unlikely to move up much. St. Lawrence’s chances for an at-large bid are harmed by the bye because the best they can do without securing the autobid is 3-1, a record that is not sure to push them into position for an at-large bid.

#22 Harvard – is still very much alive for an at-large bid. Advancing this weekend would be required, after which a 2-1 or 3-1 conference tournament record could propel the Crimson onto the bubble for an at-large bid.

#23 Bemidji St – is the lowest ranked team with a decent shot at an at-large bid. The story is quite similar to Harvard, requiring not only advancement this weekend but then also some success in the conference tournament.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Last weekend of February tournament cutlines

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As we enter the final full weekend of regular season play (there is some regular season play next weekend, and the Big Ten pushes into the weekend beyond that, but over half the remaining regular season games occur this weekend), I want to remind readers that these forecasts will be through the end of the regular season only.

Conference tournaments don’t provide a lot of downside risk, because they tend to be single elimination (the notable exception being that it’s possible to go 0-2 in conference play in conferences with play-in series). However, there can be significant upside opportunity because teams in conferences with play-in series can put together something like a 4-1 run (a perfect record in conference play would earn the autobid, thus rendering the final PWR ranking unimportant).

Because of those games remaining to be played, I loosely define ending the regular season ranked 13-17 as “on the bubble”. Teams in those rankings can secure an autobid with a decent conference tournament performance.

#7 Denver is the highest ranked team with a decent chance of falling to the bubble if they slump.

#10 Minnesota and below actually need to do pretty well (e.g. above .500) to avoid falling to the bubble (note this chart was made before last night’s win).

Former top-ranked #18 Harvard and below need good performances to climb onto the bubble.

Though it’s unlikely that #23 Robert Morris will climb into contention, #24 Western Michigan, #25 Bemidji State, and #26 Penn State are long shots if they win out.

#27 Dartmouth and below are unlikely to make the NCAA tournament without significant success in their conference tournaments.

Methodology

Forecasts include the results of games played through Sunday of this week, unless otherwise noted.

Resources

Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Current RPI Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO PWR Rankings (USCHO.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)

Jim Dahl's College Hockey Ranked

A place for college hockey PWR and RPI

Tag Archives: forecast

Tonight’s headlines – PWR effects of Hockey East games

Tonight’s headlines – PWR effects of ECAC outcomes

Conference participation possibilities for NCAA tournament

A look at who can make the tournament (with less math)

These guys seem in

Can make it at-large

Can make it by winning their conference tournament

How the “can make it at-large” teams make it

A look at all the remaining tournament possibilities

A look at the bubble teams

Background on how PWR matters for tournament selection

A look at the bubble teams

Methodology

Resources

Who might fall out of contention for NCAA tournament?

Still alive even if they lose this weekend (at-large bid would still be possible)

Still alive no matter what happens this weekend (not yet in conference tournament)

Will not make the NCAA tournament if eliminated this weekend

Have no more opportunities to make NCAA tournament

Methodology

Resources

Who’s a lock for the NCAA tournament?

Locks for the NCAA tournament

Very likely to make NCAA tournament

Preview of teams still in play

Methodology

Resources

22 teams face elimination from at-large contention

Team that need to win this weekend to stay alive

This weekend’s bubble watch (a look at #10-#23)

Methodology

Resources

Last weekend of February tournament cutlines

Methodology

Resources